In India, population growth has long been viewed as the primary cause of the country's backwardness and poverty. In a nation where numerous measures have been undertaken to curb population growth, where slogans like 'We 2, Our 2' have resonated, it's startling when someone argues for having at least three children. On December 1st, at a public event in Nagpur, RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat stated that the decline in population is a cause for concern. Modern demography suggests that when a society's total fertility rate (TFR) falls below 2.1, the society begins to vanish, not because of external threats, but it ceases to exist naturally. Many languages and communities have perished similarly. It's astonishing that Asaduddin Owaisi, Congress, and the Samajwadi Party are opposing this statement by Mohan Bhagwat. They have constantly feared that the BJP government aims to control the minority population under the guise of population control. However, Bhagwat's statements shouldn't be dismissed lightly. The rapid decline in India's population growth rate not only affects demography but also escalates potential social and economic issues. Let's understand how this could happen.
1- Why is the Decline in TFR Dangerous?
The RSS chief asserts that the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) should not go below 2.1. Our country's population policy was established in either 1998 or 2002, which stated that a society's TFR should not fall below 2.1. At this fertility rate, human population cannot be sustained, which is why we need more than two children per family; this is what population science tells us.
Only when a society's TFR remains at 2.1 can it maintain its current population. In India, this figure has fallen below 2.1. Therefore, it should be a matter of concern. Statistics show that apart from Muslims, no other religious group in India has a TFR above 2.1. This is why religions like Hinduism, Sikhism, and Jainism have fallen below 2 and face the threat of extinction. Currently, Muslims are the only group with a TFR above 2.1 at 2.36. Japan's former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s senior advisor recently warned that Japan could disappear if birth rates do not improve. Similarly, China halted its one-child policy introduced in 1979 by 2016 due to recognizing such problems.
2- An Aging India is Worrisome for the Nation's Economy
Over the past three decades, the economic growth and global respect India has gained haven’t been devoid of the significant role played by its population. When population rates are rising, the economy benefits from an abundant workforce, providing easily accessible cheap labor and opportunities for industrial growth. Surveys indicate that between 2022 and 2050, India's population is projected to increase by 18%, while the elderly population is estimated to grow by 134% and individuals aged over 80 by 279%. Concerns are valid as aging will escalate dependency ratios. By 2021, every 100 working individuals support 16 elderly dependents.
India is set to emerge as the third largest economy, largely owing to its youthful strength. In contrast, countries like Germany and Japan face sharp declines in their working population, while India's numbers are on the rise. To outperform China's economy, maintaining a youthful population is crucial, as China's population is rapidly aging. It's said that China might age before it becomes wealthy. India must learn from China’s situation. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, by 2022, Japan's working population had dwindled to around 58%, while Germany's was approximately 63% and declining. Conversely, India's working population reached 67%, continuously growing. However, this trend won't last beyond the next two decades.
3- There are Practical Aspects to Consider
There are more challenges that make Mohan Bhagwat’s concerns appear justified. The reduction in India's TFR below 2.1 poses additional threats. Those who can afford to provide good education and upbringing for their children have a TFR below one. Others, unable to afford proper child-rearing, continue having three to four children, leading to a rapid rise in the unskilled population. This was why population control programs were terminated in countries like Singapore two decades ago despite the population explosion. It demonstrated that governments, even with intent, can’t provide adequate education and nutrition for all poor children, resulting in a growing unskilled workforce.
4- Why are Congress, SP, and Owaisi Concerned?
It's undeniable that the RSS sees a declining Hindu population as a concern, given the sharp decline in TFR among Hindu, Buddhist, Jain, and Sikh women. This rapid decrease in population raises RSS concerns over demographic imbalance. Congress, the Samajwadi Party, and Owaisi are worried that promoting this ideology might someday lead to the RSS proposing demographic changes under the pretense of tackling minority population control.
