The results of the 2024 Legislative Elections have sent shockwaves through Uttar Pradesh, where BJP faced an unexpected setback, especially where it anticipated triumph. The result: BJP was unable to achieve an outright majority. But who is to blame? Was it the fragmentation of Sister Mayawati's votes or their shift towards the 'India' alliance that triggered this outcome? Perhaps the BSP not only cut into the votes of both parties but also suffered the most significant damage in the process.
Let's delve into the details...
In fact, the scattering of BSP votes notably benefited the 'India' alliance. Interestingly, over a dozen seats where BJP benefitted from BSP's vote division. Of the 33 seats won by BJP+, 16 witnessed BSP votes exceeding BJP's victory margin over the 'India' alliance. Political analysts suggest that BJP's wins in these constituities were largely due to the BSP vote. Without them, BJP's total seat count in UP might have dropped below 20.
However, there are also 23 constituencies where BSP managed to capture a substantial number of votes causing significant harm to the 'India' alliance. These are strongholds where the BSP historically performed well. Whereever BSP was successful in limiting the segmentation of their vote bank, BJP emerged victorious. Such constituities include Bulandshahr, Mathura, Hathras, and several others, where BSP's resilient voter base allowed BJP to edge over the 'India' alliance, albeit by a slender margin. Conversely, in constituencies where BSP candidates garnered fewer votes or suffered more dispersion, seats shifted towards the 'India' alliance.
Seats like Etawah, Dhaurahra, Kheri, Etah, Sambhal, and many others reportedly lost a major fraction of their traditional BSP votes, which shifted to 'India' alliance's favor, resulting in BJP's loss in these seats.
Source: aajtak
Back in 2019, seats where BSP did not run saw most Dalit votes swinging towards BJP. This year, however, BSP's participation and vote share impacted BJP negatively. The presence of BSP's candidate Dare Singh Prajapati in the fray benefited Harendra Malik, running against Sanjeev Baliyan in Muzaffarnagar. With 143,000 votes for BSP and Baliyan's loss by 24,000 votes, it's clear the impact BSP can make.
In Badaun, last time the Dalit vote largely went to BJP due to the absence of a BSP candidate. But this year, BSP's Muslim Khan's candidacy secured over 97,000 votes, resulting in BJP's Durvijay Singh Shakya losing by approx 35,000 votes. These are just two examples among the 22 seats where BJP faced defeat due to BSP's vote bank influence.
Compared to the 2022 elections, BSP's vote share declined by nearly three percent. The decline largely shifted in favor of the 'India' alliance. For BSP, safeguarding their vote bank has become the most significant challenge they face today. In constituencies like Nagina, for instance, BSP received only 13,000 votes, where Mayawati initially kickstarted her political career. In stark contrast, Chandra Shekhar Azad surged with over 500,000 votes more than BSP, winning the seat.
Despite the losses, Mayawati believes her core voter base remains loyal. However, awarding tickets to Muslims did not translate into votes for BSP, rather the opposite occurred. Acknowledging this in her post-election release, Mayawati hinted at exercising greater caution in political participation for Muslims in future endeavors.
