Following the surgical strikes by India on terrorist bases in Pakistan and POK, tension has escalated in South Asia. However, experts believe the likelihood of a large-scale war remains low. Global think tanks and experts opine that while Pakistan is under pressure to respond, it will exercise restraint considering the threat of international scrutiny and war. Both nations face international pleas for peace, with critical hours ahead determining whether the crisis worsens or resolves through dialogue.
Pakistan Fears War and International Inquiry
The Atlantic Council's South Asia Center suggests the conflict escalation is unlikely after India's action against terrorist hubs in Pakistan and POK. While there's pressure on Pakistan to retaliate, it is wary of the prospect of war and international inquiry. Low-intensity skirmishes across the Line of Control (LoC) might continue as a form of retaliation, though unlikely to escalate into full-scale war. Diplomatic channels, including the USA and United Nations, are actively engaging to prevent escalated tensions.
Global Leaders Call for De-escalation
According to the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter, global leaders like the UN, USA, and UAE urge India and Pakistan to avoid military confrontation. Pakistan has termed the Indian strike an 'act of war' and has threatened a strong response. Diplomatic efforts continue, though the outcome hinges on Pakistan’s response, with coming hours being crucial to determining if peace will be restored.
Nations on High Alert
The Financial Times reports that India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has indicated potential further pre-emptive strikes, following intelligence indicating more terrorist attacks. Pakistan's military spokesperson Ahmed Chaudhary’s threat to choose the time and place for response underscores the potential for heightened tensions. However, international pressure led by the USA may prevent both countries from further military escalation.
CNN suggests growing concerns from global powers, including the UN, USA, China, UAE, and Japan, with India actively briefing key partners such as the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Russia to manage pressure.
Both Nations May Withdraw
The Telegraph suggests that while both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals, which could inflame tensions, it's unclear how far Pakistan will go in response. Mirroring the 2019 Pulwama crisis, both countries might withdraw after a skirmish, depicting the outcome as a political victory. Key questions arise: Was India’s strike merely symbolic, and will Pakistan control its extremist factions in its response?
