From November 2025 to January 2026, global sea surface temperatures remained significantly above average. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), both hemispheres recorded remarkable warmth in the subtropical oceans. In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the sea temperatures east of the international date line were slightly below normal.
This resulted in a mild La Niña condition. Although the temperature difference across the central and eastern Pacific wasn't significant, a gradient remained between the east and west. This led to weather patterns resembling those of La Niña.
In the Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a negative phase. Near Indonesia, sea temperatures were warmer than usual. However, this intensity of heat is gradually decreasing.
Temperature Changes Expected March to May
During March to May 2026, transformations may be observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is predicted that the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific, which is currently below normal, may transition from the weak La Niña condition towards an ENSO-neutral state.
However, temperatures in some ocean parts may rise, and the western Pacific Ocean is likely to experience higher than normal temperatures. This ongoing temperature gradient between the east and west will continue to contribute to atmospheric conditions akin to those of La Niña.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is expected to weaken from its recent negative phase towards a neutral state.
The Atlantic Ocean is anticipated to maintain an overall warm condition. In the northern and southern tropical Atlantic, sea temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average, sustaining the hotter-than-usual trend observed over the past several seasons.
Understanding Rainfall Patterns
According to the WMO, during March–May 2026, the rainfall pattern in the equatorial Pacific region might still exhibit La Niña-like influences, even as sea surface temperature (SST) gradually shifts towards ENSO-neutral conditions.
South of the equator approximately between 170°E to 120°W, rainfall is likely to be below normal. This area extends southeastward to roughly 90°W. Similarly, in the eastern part of the Maritime Continent, below-normal rainfall is more probable.
However, from 160°W to the South American coast, rainfall in the equatorial region is expected to be near average. In the Northern Hemisphere, an area of above-normal rainfall might develop from near the Philippine Sea extending along 15°N latitude up to 150°W.
Outside the Pacific, there is a slightly increased likelihood of below-average rainfall in the equatorial Atlantic. Conversely, there’s a slim possibility of above-normal rainfall in northwestern North America, the Indian subcontinent, and northern Asia. In contrast, signals for precipitation in Africa, South America, and Europe remain unclear as different models provide varying predictions.
