After joining the leadership-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the chief of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Omprakash Rajbhar, has come into limelight. Post meetings from CM Yogi to the state BJP president, Rajbhar has turned his focus to those six parliamentary seats in Purvanchal where BJP faced defeat in 2019.
He declared that their campaign would kick off precisely in the regions where BJP last faced defeat. A massive rally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Lal Ganj constituency, Azamgarh, is under planning, for which a proposal has been submitted to CM Yogi.
Rajbhar has sent this proposal through the state BJP president to JP Nadda, signaling clear intent - the BJP-SBSP alliance is honing in on Purvanchal seats lost in the last elections. Past defeats in Purvanchal laid the groundwork for Rajbhar's return to NDA, and he has effectively bridged Lucknow and Ballia.
How will alliances affect the Purvanchal equations?
Rajbhars make up about 4% of UP's population. Purvanchal has 26 parliamentary seats across 25 districts, with substantial Rajbhar populations in 18 of these districts. The Rajbhar voters can be pivotal, influencing the outcome in approximately a dozen parliamentary seats. SBSP fielded candidates in 19 seats during the 2019 elections. While they didn't secure a victory, there were eight where they comfortably held third place.
Source: aajtak
In the last parliamentary elections, SBSP candidates collectively garnered less than three lakh votes. These numbers suggest that although SBSP alone may not claim victory, their voter base could ease the path to success for parties like BJP. Rajbhar's voter base has shown the same dedication as that of BSP, convincing BJP that with Rajbhar's support, they could conquer the Purvanchal fortress.
In seven seats, victory margins were under fifty thousand votes
In seats like Machhlishahr in Jaunpur district and Ballia, BJP had to grapple hard for a win. In Purvanchal, BJP's victory margins ran slim, under fifty thousand votes on seven seats. BJP's Bholanath secured a narrow victory by a margin of roughly 181 votes in the Machhlishahr seat while SBSP's Rajnath snagged a third-place finish with 11223 votes. In the Ballia parliamentary seat, Virendra Singh Mast of BJP won by 15519 votes, and the SBSP candidate received 35900 votes.
The state election results increased BJP's concerns
Compared to the 2014 elections, BJP's seat count decreased, but the unsatisfactory performance in the state elections caused more worry. Despite the influential presence of CM Yogi Adityanath in Purvanchal, the opposition's alliance, led by SP, dominated, unsettling BJP and kickstarting analysis for the 2024 elections to avoid a repeat situation.
Noteworthy, Ghazipur district, home to three ministers in Modi's first government, didn't win a single assembly seat for BJP. The SP alliance swept BJP in Azamgarh, limited them to two seats in Ballia, and a single seat in Mau. The superb display by SP's alliance in the state elections also credited Omprakash Rajbhar.
Source: aajtak
With SBSP's seat tally jumping from two to six, it's important to note that alongside Manoj Sinha, Dr. Mahendra Nath Pandey from Chandauli and Kalraj Mishra, elected MP from Deoria in 2014, were ministers in Modi government 1.0. Both Pandey and Mishra hail from Ghazipur district.
Rajbhar's re-entry enhances NDA's strength on these seats
Rajbhar's return to NDA bolsters BJP's position not only in Ghazipur and Ballia but also in Azamgarh, Lal Ganj, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar, Jaunpur, Ghosi, Chandauli, and Machhlishahr. Rajbhar, the sitting MLA from Zahoorabad, is from within the Ballia parliamentary constituency. Subhaspa's Bedi Ram won the 2022 elections in Jakhania, situated within the parliamentary region of Ghazipur. Both these legislative areas have significant numbers of Rajbhar voters.
In alliance with SBSP, BJP may benefit beyond Ghazipur and Ballia; the impact extends to Salempur, Robertsganj, Jaunpur, Ghosi, Machhlishahr, and Varanasi regions, where Rajbhar communities are prominent. Questions linger regarding the gains for Rajbhar through this partnership; although no official alliance formula has emerged, reports suggest SBSP seeks four parliamentary seats, including Ghazipur, in UP and one in Bihar.
Why is the Purvanchal battle crucial for BJP?
BJP aims to clutch all 80 seats in the 2024 elections, with 26 of them stemming from Purvanchal. This region enshrines PM Narendra Modi's constituency Varanasi and CM Yogi's Gorakhpur. With such significant seats at stake, BJP leaders are wary; any weakness in Purvanchal could give the opposition an opportunity to set a negative narrative, despite strong statewide performance. Therefore, the party is determined to leave no stone unturned in this election battle of Purvanchal.
Source: aajtak
