Could Mamata Banerjee become the most formidable face against Narendra Modi, overshadowing Rahul Gandhi? This question arises amidst indications of dissent regarding Rahul Gandhi within the INDIA Bloc. Mamata Banerjee, along with her party, has openly challenged Rahul Gandhi's leadership. The claim is that it may now be time to replace the captain of the INDIA alliance. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) asserts that defeating Team Modi under Rahul Gandhi is nearly impossible. They argue for Mamata Banerjee's leadership, causing visible divisions within the INDIA Bloc. Majority support seems to veer towards a change in captaincy.
Team India's coalition score in the Lok Sabha is 235 compared to the NDA's 293. Despite Narendra Modi's leadership of the NDA, the coalition's leadership issue has sparked renewed debate. TMC believes that recent Congress performance in Haryana and Maharashtra requires a change in leadership. They suggest that Mamata Banerjee, with her impressive electoral strike rate against the BJP, should take the helm. Thus, an internal conflict over the captain's role in Team India has come to light.
Source: aajtak
What is TMC Claiming?
Before diving into the coalition's internal views, let's decode TMC's assertions. Claim one: Congress can't effectively unite all parties involved. Claim two: Despite setbacks, Congress's arrogance remains unshaken. Claim three: Mamata Banerjee is capable of leading the INDIA alliance. Claim four: Mamata's strike rate against BJP is 70%, while Rahul's is only 10%. Claim five: The name INDIA Bloc originated from Mamata Banerjee herself.
Source: aajtak
Congress is countering TMC's claims, holding up a mirror of numbers. They're pointing out that while Congress commands 99 MPs, indicating a senior brother position for Rahul Gandhi within the alliance, TMC only has 28 accumulating MPs. As a result, Congress leads with more than triple the MPs that TMC holds.
TMC's Demand for Mamata to Lead
Following the Lok Sabha election results, Congress felt it found a formula to challenge Narendra Modi. Inside and beyond the party, Rahul Gandhi's stature rose. He emerged as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. Nevertheless, legislative election defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra have offered a ripe opportunity for Mamata Banerjee to make strategic play.
At present, Rahul Gandhi is the de facto captain of the INDIA alliance. Although Narendra Modi clinched the Prime Minister seat once more, the alliance showed remarkable resilience. Now, TMC is pushing the theory that Rahul Gandhi should retire, and Mamata Banerjee should become the alliance's captain. Intriguingly, multiple key players in the INDIA alliance stand by Mamata Banerjee.
Akhilesh Yadav's party currently supports Mamata Banerjee. Meanwhile, Lalu Yadav's faction sits on the fence but promises to go with consensus. Prominent figures like Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray also seem agreeable to TMC's proposal.
Electoral Outcomes Raising Questions
Post-general elections, the results from four state polls have triggered questioning of Rahul Gandhi's leadership within the INDIA alliance. While the alliance won in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress performed poorly. Haryana saw direct competition, resulting in Congress's loss. In Jharkhand, victory came not through Rahul but via Hemant Soren’s efforts. In Maharashtra, Congress contested the lion's share of seats but met with heavy defeat. Consequent failures have loosened Congress’s headlock in the alliance.
Source: aajtak
These are the very election results that have paved the way for dissent towards Rahul Gandhi in the INDIA Bloc. The outcomes pointedly demonstrate that Congress’s initial triumph graph collapsed under scrutiny. Significantly, the Congress party faltered in direct conflict against BJP, while local chieftains showed promising spells against BJP’s political machine.
The results from Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir served as testament to the regional titans' enduring grip. In sharp contrast, Congress somehow misplaced its base, spurring the chorus for change within coalition ranks.
Why Does TMC Seek Leadership of the INDIA Alliance?
Why is TMC vying for the INDIA alliance’s leadership? The answer lies in Mamata Banerjee’s blueprint. Although she ran the Lok Sabha elections within the alliance, she went solo in Bengal. By securing alliance leadership, Mamata aspires to signal that she is not merely confined to Bengal. It offers her party an expansion pedestal, potentially easing the way for the 2026 assembly elections and presenting a credible 2029 face against Modi. Contrastingly, BJP alleges that the alliance has seen through Rahul's reality, shifting focus towards actual regional threats over Congress.
BJP's Critique: 'The INDIA Alliance Won’t Last'
26 opposition parties united grandly, declaring INDIA Bloc to thwart PM Modi. Remarkably, BJP barely missed the full majority mark by 32 while reducing seats to 240. Initially perceived victories seemed apt, with the alliance working its magic. Yet, subsequent state elections like Haryana and Maharashtra turned disastrous for Congress, portending an emerging consensus against them within the alliance.
In June 2023, a pivotal meeting took place in Patna amongst 16 parties, injecting strong hopes of unseating Modi in the Lok Sabha. The political canvas brimmed with power displays, with the INDIA alliance rallying directly against Modi’s 400 claims. Yet internal fizzures now see Congress risking becoming the dissenting villain in the equation.
While the political landscape resounded with unity and resolve from rallies juxtaposed with PM Modi's dismissals of such undertakings enduringly. Modi’s trusty quip underscored anticipated alliance fragility.
Congress Estranged Allies in Haryana
Despite post-election expectations leaning toward continued cooperation, Congress severed the partnership discipline. In Haryana legislature contests, it left AAP in solitude. The forecasted result: overconfidence undid Congress’s grasp over Haryana, foreshadowing further woes in Maharashtra.
Most notably, Congress is perceived increasingly as the villain obstructing the INDIA Bloc. Increasing skepticism addresses Rahul Gandhi’s leadership effectiveness amid multiple political misfires. Allies now show reluctance in associating closely with Congress.
Source: aajtak
AAP Goes Solo in Delhi
Delhi's former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced AAP would independently contest upcoming Delhi Assembly elections, forgoing a Congress partnership. As assembly tenure concludes on February 23, electoral declarations are imminent. AAP strategizes with released candidate lists, envisioning reinforced positioning by reallocating contenders like Manish Sisodia.
This severance is significant for future alignments as Bihar faces 2025 elections and the probable dissolution of Congress-RJD alliances. Remarks from Tejashwi Yadav offer non-conducive signals. Likewise, UP presents simmering tensions amid Congress-Samajwadi Party face-offs, potentially dismantling the 2027 election pairing. Similarly, splits are visible following divergent stances in state elections, paralleling Maharashtra’s scenario.
Congress’s Fumbling Graph Across States
Adverse winds seem to scatter Congress with alienation echoes among erstwhile allies. The symbiotic legacy shared by Congress and RJD raises new questions about durability in 2025 legislative alignments. Tejashwi Yadav expressed openness to Mamata leading the INDIA bloc instead of Rahul.
Examined under the 2019 election structure, Congress performed middlingly in Bihar, while RJD and others, including left parties, jettisoned humble victories. However, post-Lok Sabha, Congress’s failures mirrored starkly in Haryana and Maharashtra, compounding perceived ineffectiveness within the coalition.
Source: aajtak
An undercurrent challenges the relationship between Congress and RJD, foreshadowing possible dissolutions while aligning with their evolving election strategies. Accompanying this theme is the increase of Prashant Kishor’s party’s influence.
Even Allies Distance from Congress
The state of Maharashtra reflects growing ally discontentment, with leadership choices causing discord. Samajwadi Party’s local head, Abu Azmi, indicates divergence from Shiv Sena’s, indicative of rifts. Explicit demands for sharing seats with MVA weren’t entirely met, and BJP's agents narrative gets invoked.
Will UP Miss the Iconic Rahul-Akhilesh Pair by 2027?
Despite changes like Mamata Banerjee’s name surfacing in leadership considerations which garnered support from leaders such as Sharad Pawar and Akhilesh Yadav. A winter session clash exemplified growing Congress-Samajwadi tensions.
Commentary revolves around whether the iconic ‘two ladders’ image of Rahul and Akhilesh will unravel ahead of 2027 UP elections. Continuity concerns are growing since Samajwadi opted for going solo in by-elections with Congress extending merely outside backing. Maharashtra’s pattern might replicate, fostering separations, igniting speculation, and challenging historic ties.
Even parliamentarian Ram Gopal Yadav from the Samajwadi Party laid emphasis on exposing flaws within Congress cycles of underperformance post legislative encounters. Such observations highlight faction rifts, schematically foregrounding discussions whether Mamata Banerjee should seize the coalition's mantle, resonating with broader party disputes.
