Delhi's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate on March 21 and subsequently jailed. Following Supreme Court orders, he was released on interim bail on May 10. Since then, AAP has undergone significant changes.
Indeed, Arvind Kejriwal canvased tirelessly for AAP candidates across India for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, held a press conference with Akhilesh Yadav in Lucknow, and energized rallies and roadshows in Delhi and Punjab. However, an event at the Chief Minister's residence has overshadowed these efforts.
The greatest challenge for Kejriwal is overcoming allegations of assault in the Swati Maliwal case, which resulted in the jailing of his former aide Bibhav Kumar, with the first bail plea already dismissed.
Bibhav Kumar's imprisonment even before Kejriwal's surrender is a severe blow to AAP.
1. The Turmoil of the Swati Maliwal Case
Kejriwal's political mismanagement of the Swati Maliwal incident marks a grave error. There were opportunities to present his side and politically recover, yet Kejriwal missed each one.
Despite the circumstances under which Sanjay Singh appeared before the media, declaring that Kejriwal was informed and would take action eased the situation. Kejriwal needed to reinforce that narrative but failed.
Displaying political shrewdness, Kejriwal traveled to Lucknow with Bibhav Kumar. It's unclear if it was advised or an attempt to emulate Amit Shah, who during the UP elections, campaigned with his junior minister Ajay Mishra Teni. However, Kejriwal's position is considerably different now.
Responding to queries in the Lucknow press conference could have been salvaging. Yet, directing the mic to Akhilesh Yadav and hearing responses reminiscent of Mulayam Singh Yadav did damage.
By taking action against Bibhav Kumar, Kejriwal could have neutralized BJP's tactics. The BJP now has both corruption and the Maliwal case to use against him.
2. The Impact of Bibhav Kumar's Absence
The inclusion of Bibhav Kumar on the visitor's list Kejriwal provided to Tihar Jail caught attention. Having been associated with Kejriwal since the onset and managing affairs post Kejriwal's governance, Maliwal has even described Kumar as the most influential personality within AAP.
Now jailed for assault in the Maliwal case, Kumar's first bail plea has been denied. Kejriwal's surrender date is public knowledge, but Kumar's release is contingent on court-approved bail.
3. Diminished Confidence in Sanjay Singh
Upon his release, Sanjay Singh's slogan 'Jail's locks will break, Kejriwal will be free' echoed amongst supporters. But in the brief interim bail period, events spiraled out of control.
The assurance Singh gave to Sunita Kejriwal, post the Maliwal case, seems to have diminished. While Singh and Kumar were present with Kejriwal in Lucknow, Atishi's statement, post Singh's utterances, has sparked doubts.
Kejriwal asserts that there are two versions to the Maliwal case, yet which one he endorses as true remains undisclosed.
4. Suspicion Surrounding Raghav Chadha and Bhagwant Mann
Amidst Kejriwal's jail term, two AAP parliamentarians are under speculation. While Maliwal's case is clear, Chadha's situation is less so.
Claims of Bhagwant Mann spending considerably less time than necessary during visits, coupled with social media discussions during campaigns, raise eyebrows. Rumors suggest Mann could be replaced by Chadha as Punjab's Chief Minister.
5. Sunita Kejriwal's Managerial Challenge
Kejriwal hoped his bail period would allow him to set affairs in order, ensuring manageable administration for his wife Sunita Kejriwal. Yet, fate often has other plans, compounded by his own beliefs about equality amongst humans.
Now, Sunita Kejriwal faces a challenge arguably bigger than that of Kalpana Soren. Kejriwal's repetitive return to jail, as the Supreme Court Registry has denied an extension of his bail period, paints a grim picture.
