Voting for a crucial 96 constituencies across ten states and union territories is set for 13 May, fueling anticipation as the fourth phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draws near.
This round is particularly noteworthy given the high probability of unexpected swings in many seats, which have historically been devoid of any one party's dominance since 2009.
India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit has spotted 21 potential swing seats, including Amalapuram, Anakapalli, Anantapur, Bapatla, Eluru, Kakinada, Narsapuram, Rajahmundry, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Khammam, Srinagar, Munger, Bhongir, Singhbhum, Adilabad, Bardhaman-Durgapur, Kalahandi, and Nizamabad.
Stronghold Seats
Out of the 96 seats in the fourth phase, 20 are known strongholds of particular parties, including Mahbubnagar, Medak, Maval, Shirdi, Brahmapur, Nalgonda, Ahmednagar, Beed, Darbhanga, Indore, Jalgaon, Jalna, Khargone, Khunti, Lohardaga, Raver, Berhampur, Birbhum, Krishnanagar, and Hyderabad.
Ten of these 20 are considered bastions of the BJP, while two seats each have seen the dominance of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and Shiv Sena. The remaining seats have been strongholds of the Congress, TMC, AIMIM, and BJD (Biju Janata Dal).
In this phase, while swing seats and party strongholds are almost equally distributed, the previous two phases saw a greater number of stronghold seats. Phase two had 34 while phase three had 47 such constituencies.
Close Contests
Most seats witnessed neck-to-neck competition in 2019, with no party winning by more than a 40% vote margin. Only three constituencies - Palamu in Jharkhand, Jalgaon in Maharashtra, and Srinagar in Jammu & Kashmir - had victories with margins exceeding 35%.
The BJP secured wins in Palamu by 37.8% and Jalgaon by 39.5%. Meanwhile, Farooq Abdullah triumphed in Srinagar with a 37.5% margin.
Source: aajtak
In 2019, there were 11 seats in phase four that saw victories by a margin of less than one percent. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) clinched wins in Andhra Pradesh's Vijayawada by 0.7%, Srikakulam by 0.6%, and Guntur by 0.4%. Similarly, Congress emerged victorious in Telangana's Malkajgiri by 0.7% and Bhongir by 0.4%. Visakhapatnam, Khunti, Aurangabad, Koraput, Zahirabad, and Bardhaman-Durgapur also experienced tight races.
Source: aajtak
Seat Wins in 2019
In 2019, the BJP achieved victories in 42 of the 96 phase four seats, a considerable rise from just ten seats in 2009 and 38 seats in 2014.
The YSR Congress Party, formed in 2011, showed rapid progress in these areas. It went from winning nine seats in 2014 to securing 22 in 2019. In contrast, Congress has seen a steady decline in support, from winning 50 seats in 2009 to only managing 3 in 2014 and 6 in 2019.
Source: aajtak
In phase four, the BJP is contesting 89 seats, having garnered over 40% of the vote in 43 of the constituencies in the 2019 elections, while Congress received less than 10% of the votes in these segments.
