The city of Kazan, positioned at the mouth of the Volga and Kazanka rivers in Russia, has emerged as a significant center of power. In the wake of the Ukraine war, several heads of state have gathered in Kazan under the auspices of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is defying the US and Europe. All eyes, however, are on the two Asian giants—China and India. Yet, seeing Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping under the same roof after the 2020 Galwan incident is notably headline-worthy. The pressing question is how did the atmosphere of confrontation and deadlock between China and India soften after four years? How did PM Modi and Jinping come to the negotiation table? Was Putin pivotal in resolving this military standoff?
Since the 1962 war, rarely have Indian and Chinese soldiers been this bloodied on the border. The events of June 15, 2020, in the Galwan Valley deepened the rift between these two Asian superpowers. Nevertheless, military and diplomatic dialogues between the two nations continued. However, the issues persisted.
The year 2022 saw Russia launch an offensive on Ukraine, ignoring US threats. The world seemed divided into two camps. On one side, nations supporting Ukraine outnumbered Russia's allies. Nonetheless, in this power-balancing game, India and China remained pivotal, refraining from openly supporting or opposing Russia.
Source: aajtak
This period saw the US and European nations impose sanction after sanction on Russia. Experts believe that Putin understood the essentiality of India and China's support to counter the US. The task still lay in ending the cold war between India and China post-Galwan.
Was the Agreement Script Set During the SCO Summit?
Chinese Foreign Minister and Politburo member Wang Yi is reckoned to be second only to President Xi Jinping in terms of power. In July, separate from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan, Foreign Minister Jaishankar met with Wang Yi, focusing on resolving the LAC military standoff.
During this period, not only Jaishankar but also National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval met Wang. While these meetings were publicly considered routine, reports suggested that both nations were indeed working towards resolving the military standoff. Furthermore, reports stated that Putin played a significant role in the bilateral patrolling agreement. This was followed by another meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries in Laos to promptly end the LAC standoff.
The Implications of Doval's Meeting with Putin
In September, images of NSA Ajit Doval's meeting with Russian President Putin went viral. Doval met Putin on September 12 in Saint Petersburg. Officially, this rendezvous was meant to update Putin on the discussions and conclusions from PM Modi's Ukraine visit. Yet experts argue that the real reason for this meeting was to end India's military standoff with China.
Source: aajtak
After seeing Putin, Doval proceeded to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But how big was Putin's role in the agreement between India and China? It can be gauged that right after Doval met with Putin on September 12, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi also consulted Putin.
Source: aajtak
The agenda of Putin's closed-door meetings with representatives of the two countries was not disclosed. India linked it to a briefing on PM Modi's Ukraine visit, while China termed it as a routine meeting. However, many experts openly asserted that these meetings with Putin aimed at ending the decade-long military standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The interaction phase was not limited to Putin alone. Later, Doval and Wang Yi also met each other, and images of their meeting spread on social media.
Source: aajtak
The Strategic Accord - India and China Coming Together, a Boon for Russia!
The world is battling on multiple fronts at present. February 2022 marked the onset of a new war, Russia’s assault on Ukraine, which further inflamed the Middle East. The US and Europe isolated Russia post its attack, placing several bans on Russian oil in international markets, with many nations severing diplomatic ties.
Reports indicate that amidst this isolation, Putin shifted focus towards the Global South, advocating BRICS as a potent alternative to G-7 dominance. BRICS' robustness relies significantly on India and China, prompting Putin to keenly pursue resolutions for their military standoff. Consequently, a series of strategic dialogues ensued between Jaishankar, Doval, and Wang Yi.
Including Saudi Arabia and UAE in BRICS: A Tactical Move
President Putin knows well that the rise of the Global South is paramount to diminshing US influence. Therefore, expanding BRICS becomes crucial. Initially started by four nations, BRICS had expanded to five with South Africa. This year in January, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt were incorporated, augmenting BRICS’ influence in the oil market.
Of the world's nine largest oil producers, six are BRICS members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Brazil, Iran, and UAE. Together, these nations account for over 43 percent of global oil production, unsettling the US. President Joe Biden once remarked against other nations forming alliances independent of the US.
The Timing of India-China Accord Ahead of BRICS Summit
Questions arise over the timing of the accord's announcement, made just a day before the BRICS Summit, when its framework was set as early as July. The reason, experts claim, is Putin's desire to convey a significant message from an international platform like the BRICS Summit to the US and Europe. This move demonstrated that, thanks to his efforts, India and China returned to the negotiation table and underlined the growing might of BRICS.
