Until a few days ago, political corridors were abuzz with the silence of BSP supremo Mayawati ahead of the Lok Sabha elections being seen as favourable for the BJP. Supporters of the Samajwadi Party and Congress were not holding back from stating that Mayawati was now openly working as the B-team for the BJP. The common folk were also led to believe that BSP's lack of activity indicated a deliberate strategy. Subsequently, rumours circulated that Congress and BSP leaders were in talks that could potentially herald Mayawati as a prime ministerial candidate of the India coalition. However, nothing of the sort ensued. Now, as candidate declarations are mostly done, situations are unfolding which seem worrisome for the BJP—at least on these 5 seats in Western UP, where the BSP candidates have certainly given the BJP a reason to worry.
1. The Challenge for Arun Govil in Meerut is Devvrata Tyagi
In Meerut Lok Sabha seat, the BJP nominated television's Ram, Arun Govil, as their candidate while the Samajwadi Party fielded Atul Pradhan. With around 37 percent Muslim voters in Meerut, the Muslim votes usually play a decisive role in the outcome. It was expected that both the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party would field Muslim candidates, but both declared Hindu candidates instead. The BSP has fielded Devvrata Tyagi, a Tyagi from the upper caste. Obviously, had there been no Tyagi candidate, the approximately 41,000 Tyagi votes would have gone to the BJP. But if the BSP candidate manages to secure even 10,000 votes from his community, it would mean significant loss for the BJP. Earlier, both SP and BSP had fielded Muslim candidates from Meerut, and the region has seen several Muslim Members of Parliament. In 2019, BSP's Yakoob Qureshi lost to BJP's Rajendra Agarwal by barely four thousand votes. Clearly, BSP here is spoiling BJP's game.
2. BSP's Jat Candidate in Bijnor will Complicate NDA's Strategy
In Bijnor Lok Sabha's electoral history, the region has been linked to Dalit leadership. This is where former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar and ex-chief minister of UP, Mayawati, have both served as MPs. But post the Ram Mandir movement, which is since 1991, the BJP has secured the seat four times. However, SP has won it twice, and RLD once. Presently, BSP holds sway with Malook Nagar as the sitting MP.
The BJP seat was offered to its ally RLD. As the NDA candidate, RLD's Chandan Chauhan is trying his luck while SP fielded Deepak Saini. However, BSP has thrown a curveball by nominating Jat candidate Chaudhary Virendra Singh. Since the NDA put up a Gurjar candidate, it's expected that BSP's Jat candidate would gain local Jat support—a typical tendency in UP politics where caste-based voting prevails. In Bijnor, there are approximately 4.5 to 5 lakh Muslim voters, nearly the same number of Dalit voters, and 1.5 to nearly 2 lakh Jat voters. The fewer Gurjar votes range from 50 to 75 thousand. That's why Muslims and Dalits are decisive voters here. Had BSP fielded a Muslim, Dalit, or OBC candidate, it could have been advantageous to the BJP as they had been hoping.
3. Muzaffarnagar's Jat-Majority Seat without a Muslim Candidate
BJP has once again nominated its Jat face, Sanjiv Balyan, to contest from Muzaffarnagar. He is up against SP's heavyweight Jat leader, Chaudhary Harendra Singh. Since the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, the seat has been in BJP's camp. In 2014, Sanjiv Balyan secured a sweeping victory. However, despite winning again in 2019, the victory margin was merely 6,526 votes, and this time RLD also stands with him.
The BJP expected BSP to field another Muslim candidate, but BSP broke away from this pattern, choosing Dara Singh Prajapati as their candidate, which could draw the backward votes away from BJP. According to 2019 estimates, the caste arithmetic in Muzaffarnagar is tilting in SP's favor, with roughly 5 lakh Muslim, 2 lakh Dalit, 1.5 lakh Jat, 130,000 Kashyap, 120,000 Saini, and 115,000 Vaishya voters.
4. BSP's Baniya Candidate for Baghpat Seat
The Baghpat seat also has a significant Muslim voter base, which has historically been decisive in elections. But even here, no party has fielded a Muslim candidate. NDA's ticket here has gone to RLD, who nominated Rajkumar Sangwan. Jat votes are likely to go to NDA, but Muslim votes may swing entirely in favor of SP. BJP's strategy was reliant on BSP fielding a Muslim candidate, which would have made it easier for the NDA candidate. Instead, BSP putting forth a Baniya candidate will undoubtedly pose a challenge for RLD, considering Baniyas are typically steadfast BJP supporters. Should BSP's Praveen Bansal not be contending, these votes would have likely gone to BJP via RLD's support. Now, the outcome may be different. For this election, SP has introduced Manoj Chaudhary into the fray. The significance of Muslim votes in Baghpat is reflected in past election results—SP's Ghulam Mohammed was second in 2014, while Chaudhary Ajit Singh was in third. In 2004, BSP's Aulad Ali was the runner-up. Baghpat comprises approximately 26 percent Muslim voters, yet no party nominated a Muslim candidate this time.
5. BSP's Brahmin Candidate in Lakhimpur Kheri
The Dhaurahra parliamentary constituency, formed by combining Sitapur and Kheri, is selecting its fourth MP this time. Congress opened its account here in 2009, with youth leader Jitin Prasad registering a win for Congress. He defeated BSP's Rajesh Verma by 184,539 votes. However, BJP has consistently won this seat thereafter. This year too, BJP's Rekha Verma is aiming for a hat-trick. But BSP seems prepared to challenge her.
SP has fielded their second-time candidate and party chief Akhilesh Yadav's confidant, Anand Singh Bhadauria. Meanwhile, BSP has played a strategic move against BJP by nominating Shyam Kishore Awasthi, a defector from BJP. BJP was expecting BSP to repeat its 2019 tactic of fielding a Muslim candidate, which indeed was the case as BSP's nearest competitor in the last election was the Muslim Arshad Iliyas Siddiqui, who lost by more than a lakh and a half votes. Jitin Prasad, who trailed in third place, is now contesting for BJP from Pilibhit. With a predominant Brahmin presence in Lakhimpur Kheri, BJP has benefited from their support in the last two elections. But BSP's Brahmin candidate might just disrupt BJP's game plan.
