India revoked the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan citing state-sponsored terrorism, triggering significant water instability in Pakistan. In this context, China's ally, China, announced its expedited completion of a dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. This dam is being constructed on the Swat River for the Mohmand Hydropower Project.
China Energy Engineering Corporation, a Chinese state-owned enterprise, has been involved in the Mohmand Hydropower Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since 2019. Originally slated for completion next year, Pakistan is hastening work on this project in collaboration with China, due to the pressing water shortage.
The Mohmand Dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is intended for electricity generation, flood control, irrigation, and water supply.
On Saturday, CCTV, China's state broadcaster, reported that concrete filling work on the dam has commenced. CCTV stated, 'The dam construction for Pakistan's key national projects is a major milestone progressing rapidly.'
India abrogated the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan dating back to 1960 following an attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22. Under this treaty, Pakistan received water from the Indus and its tributaries, Jhelum and Chenab, while India retained rights over the eastern rivers Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas. The suspension of the treaty has exacerbated water shortages in Pakistan.
With the annulment of the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan has expressed concern, stating that water is a vital national interest and a lifeline for its 240 million people.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported last Friday that India is considering increasing the release of water from the Indus River as a retaliatory measure in response to last month's attack. The report further noted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed officials to expedite dam projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers.
If floods occur, Pakistan's agriculture could be severely impacted, further straining its economy.
Following the revocation of the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan frequently complained that India's sudden water releases resulted in flooding. However, India has rebutted these allegations.
Excessive water release into rivers could lead to floods in Pakistan's provinces, severely affecting its agriculture. The devastating 2022 floods in Pakistan destroyed crops, and farmers are still recovering. Another flood could further destabilize Pakistan's economy.
With data sharing halted, India won't issue flood warnings to Pakistan.
With the treaty's suspension, data sharing between India and Pakistan has ceased. India will no longer provide flood warnings to Pakistan, increasing risks for the country.
David Mitchell, a Senior Fellow in the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, opines that India currently lacks the necessary infrastructure to completely prevent the Indus and its tributaries' water from reaching Pakistan. Hence, halting water access to Pakistan is unlikely in the near future.
He further states, 'Although India may not stop water flow to Pakistan, it can disrupt information flow. The treaty mandates extensive data sharing on project development, river flow, and water conditions. By suspending the treaty, India can halt data sharing, leaving Pakistan without flood warnings and risking the livelihoods of its population.'
China's dam projects in Pakistan
In light of these threats, Pakistan has started preparations in collaboration with China. Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus and its tributaries for hydropower electricity, its second most crucial energy source.
Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China is involved in additional significant dam projects in Pakistan. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone, China is working on the Dasu and Diamer Bhasha dam projects.
As part of CPEC, China is also developing the $1.96 billion Suki Kinari Hydropower Project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
