The Bharatiya Janata Party is leaving no stone unturned to win the upcoming assembly elections. After the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the party is in no position to tolerate any more election losses. The announcement for the assembly elections in Jharkhand is likely to be made soon. Despite having a higher vote percentage in 2019, BJP's seat count was low. Perhaps that's why BJP is continuously trying to win over tribal leaders in Jharkhand. First, it brought Sita Soren, the daughter-in-law of the Soren family, into the party, and now it is preparing to bring former Chief Minister Champai Soren. Geeta Koda, the wife of former Chief Minister Madhu Koda, has also joined BJP. It is being said that Champai Soren may join BJP on August 30.
However, the question arises: what will Champai Soren achieve by joining the Bharatiya Janata Party? If he thinks that BJP will make him the Chief Minister of the state, he is clearly mistaken. Another point to consider is what the Bharatiya Janata Party will gain by including him in their party. Given the current political situation in Jharkhand, it seems neither side will benefit. Let’s see how.
1-What did Sita Soren and Babulal Marandi achieve?
Former Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Champai Soren, is leaving JMM to join BJP, but what can he gain from BJP is something he should think about. At least in JMM, he had the position of Education Minister. If he expects more from BJP, it's an illusion. He should have learned from leaders like Babulal Marandi and Sita Soren. Hemant Soren’s sister-in-law, Sita Soren, also left JMM to join BJP just before the Lok Sabha elections. BJP even gave her a Lok Sabha ticket, but she did not win the election.
Champai Soren is known as the Tiger of Kolhan. If he does not contribute to BJP in Kolhan, he probably has not thought about how the party will treat him. Even if he manages to secure 17 seats for BJP in the Kolhan region, he will not be made the Chief Minister. At most, he could become the Deputy CM, which he could've achieved by negotiating with JMM as well. Another point is that the public has a lot of sympathy for royalty. With Shibu Soren and then Hemant Soren becoming CMs, the Soren family has become like the Gandhi family in Jharkhand. If the general populace feels that Champai betrayed the royal family, this Tiger of Kolhan might become a damp squib for BJP.
2-He'd have been better off forming his own party
If Champai Soren had formed his own party in Jharkhand, it would have been a very smart move. Although Babulal Marandi's example is in front of us, he formed a separate party and secured good seats but couldn’t achieve power, eventually returning to BJP. The JMM's strategy has always been to garner anti-BJP votes. Hemant Soren's imprisonment and Champai's move to BJP might make local tribals feel that Champai betrayed Hemant. However, if Champai formed a new party, the public might have viewed him as a martyr. Furthermore, in case of a hung assembly, he would have the bargaining power. Even with fewer seats, Champai could have directly demanded the CM post, much like Uddhav Thackeray succeeded in becoming CM in Maharashtra with fewer seats. If not CM, at least he would have secured the Deputy CM spot. But within BJP, even if he manages to win over 10 seats, it's doubtful he'll benefit.
3-Disrupting JMM's game in Kolhan
Champai Soren has been an MLA seven times and is known as the Tiger of Kolhan. His seniority is recognized, as Hemant Soren entrusted him with power. His importance in the state’s political landscape is evident as people in 12 out of 17 Santhal-dominated constituencies elected the ruling JMM. Champai belongs to the Santhal tribe and can send strong messages to the people of this tribe. When he tells his voters that JMM insulted him, it’s likely they’ll listen to him. Unfortunately, he has very little time. By the time he convinces his supporters, the elections will be over.
In reality, Kolhan division has 14 assembly constituencies. In the 2019 elections, the Mahagathbandhan led by Hemant Soren delivered a crushing defeat to BJP in this division. The saffron party failed to open its account in Kolhan, and then-CM Raghubar Das was defeated by BJP’s rebel Saryu Rai. Due to the tribal-majority region of Kolhan, JMM secured its victory in the 2019 assembly elections. Despite the Modi wave and the Ram Mandir wave, Hemant Soren’s JMM won 11 out of 14 assembly constituencies, and Congress captured two.
4-Strength of other parties in the state
The Jharkhand assembly has a total of 82 seats. If we talk about the 2019 elections, BJP had the highest vote share (33.37%) but still couldn’t capture power. JMM, with a lower vote share (18.72%), managed to secure more seats than BJP. As a result, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance formed the government under Hemant Soren's leadership in the state. Compared to the 2014 elections, BJP showed a better performance in the 2019 assembly elections, increasing its vote share by around three percent. Thus, BJP won 25 seats, JMM 30, Congress 16, RJD 1, JVM 3, and AJSU managed to secure 2 seats.
For BJP, Kolhan region remains problematic. Even the then CM Raghubar Das lost his seat there. Kolhan region has a total of 17 seats. It is being said that if Champai Soren can influence even 4 to 5 thousand votes per seat, BJP’s problem will be solved. Because whether it's the 2019 assembly elections or the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party hasn't been fully rejected by the locals in this area. This is perhaps why BJP is keen on including Champai Soren in the party despite opposition from local BJP leaders.
