Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit India on February 27. This visit is not merely diplomatic formalism but an essential endeavor to thaw the frozen relations between India and Canada over the past three years. Given the recent bitterness in India-Canada relations, this visit is perceived as a strategic reset.
Starting in Mumbai and concluding in New Delhi with high-level talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Carney's trip has one notable twist - he will not visit Punjab. This decision reflects Canada's shift from aligning its foreign policy with domestic vote-bank politics to strengthening ties with India.
A Bitter History: India-Canada Relations and the Trudeau Era
Historically, India and Canada have enjoyed relations grounded in democratic values and strong trade interests. However, post-2023, their relations plunged into an unprecedented diplomatic crisis. The Khalistani separatist issue during former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's tenure became a significant roadblock.
In September 2023, after Trudeau accused India of involvement in the murder of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, relations soured further. India consistently dismissed these allegations as 'absurd' and politically motivated while accusing Canada of harboring extremist elements.
Source: aajtak
Trudeau's government also faced criticism for allegedly ignoring India's sovereignty and security concerns to appease a small separatist faction within the Canadian Sikh community, leading to diplomatic expulsions and stalled trade talks.
Since assuming office, Mark Carney has signaled a changed stance. His meeting with Modi during the G7 summit in June 2025 laid the foundation for normalizing relations.
The Twist: Skipping Punjab
One striking element of Carney’s India visit is what’s not on the agenda - a Punjab visit. Previous Canadian PMs, including Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, have visited the Golden Temple in Amritsar, seen as a political gesture to the 800,000-strong Punjabi Sikh community in Canada.
Carney's decision to skip Punjab sends a strong diplomatic message that Canada views its relationship with India beyond the lens of any single state or community. Carney's office clarified that his focus is on trade and economic relations, while cultural engagements will be conducted in Canada.
Source: aajtak
Indian experts see this as a 'de-hyphenation' policy, where bilateral relations are being separated from domestic politics. This is a relief for New Delhi, which has long requested Canada to take strict action against secessionist elements.
Aiming for a $70 Billion Trade Target
Mark Carney's visit centers on trade and investment. In 2024, India was Canada's seventh-largest trade partner, with total trade reaching $30.8 billion. Bilateral trade in 2024-25 constituted approximately $13 billion, with India exporting $5.3 billion.
The two nations now aim to double their bilateral trade to $70 billion by 2030. Negotiations to reiterate the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) are also underway, encompassing goods, services, digital trade, and investment protection.
The India-Canada Uranium Agreement
A key strategic element of Carney's visit is to revive civil nuclear cooperation. India aims to increase its nuclear power capacity to 100GW by 2047 from the current 8GW. During the visit, an agreement for uranium supply between Cameco of Canada and India’s Department of Atomic Energy is expected to be sealed for the next decade, a markedly larger agreement than the one completed in 2015.
This continuous supply from a trusted partner is crucial to India's nuclear ambitions and cements a long-term strategic partnership between the nations.
Security Cooperation: Beyond the Nijjar Incident
In security cooperation, changes are evident. Carney's government maintains confidence that Indian agents were not involved in violent activities in Canada. Multiple meetings have occurred between India's NSA Ajit Doval and Canadian security advisors. The new framework seeks cooperation in organized crime, terrorism, extremism, and financial fraud. Canada’s legal move to revoke Tahawwur Rana's citizenship adds positivity for India, although it is not based on terrorism charges but procedural grounds.
An Evolving World Order and Migration
The return of Donald Trump and protectionist policies in the US have prompted Canada to diversify its trade partners. As Carney notes, "In an uncertain world, Canada is focusing on what it can control." Thus, Canada strengthens its ties with like-minded powers such as India, Australia, and Japan.
Source: aajtak
Migration and student exchange still remain sensitive topics. Carney's government recently announced cuts in migration targets for 2026-2028. With around 1.8 million people of Indian origin and 1 million Indian expatriates in Canada, these relationships represent a significant strength.
Skipping Punjab might displease some, but a broader view suggests stronger ties could be mutually beneficial.
A New Chapter in Pragmatic Partnership
Mark Carney's India visit could herald the beginning of a 'pragmatic partnership.' Both nations understand that their economic and strategic interests far outweigh any single dispute. By prioritizing the Mumbai-Delhi economic corridor over Punjab, Canada is treating India as a sovereign equal. The uranium agreement and security cooperation lay the foundation for this newfound trust.
With shifting Indo-Pacific equations, the $70 billion target is ambitious but not unattainable. Carney's visit may set the tone for India-Canada relations for the next decade, emphasizing mutual respect, security, and economic progress.
