On May 7, Uttar Pradesh is gearing up for the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections, with all eyes on the crucial Braj and Rohilkhand regions. Traditionally seen as the bastion of the Samajwadi Party due to the core Yadav-Muslim voter base, these 10 seats are popularly known as 'Yadav Land'. However, Akhilesh Yadav and his party have struggled to replicate their past electoral success in this area. Failure to claim victory in these seats in the upcoming elections could lead to a permanent shift of ground to the BJP.
Samajwadi Party's Strongest Equations on These Seats
In constituencies like Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Badaun, and Sambhal, there is a dense concentration of Yadav voters who have historically aligned with the Saifai family (Mulayam Singh Yadav's family). Moreover, in areas like Sambhal, Aonla, Fatehpur Sikri, Agra, and Firozabad, Muslim voters play a critical role. Sambhal has a Muslim population of 50 percent, while Bareilly has about 33 percent. Back in the 2014 elections, the SP managed to win only five seats – Mulayam Singh Yadav from Azamgarh and Mainpuri, Dimple Yadav from Kannauj, Akshay Yadav from Firozabad, and Dharmendra Yadav from Badaun. After Mulayam Singh Yadav vacated the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, also known as Teju, won the by-election and entered Parliament.
Unfortunately, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections dealt a harsh blow to the Samajwadi Party, marking their worst performance in Yadav Land to date. Mulayam Singh Yadav from Mainpuri and Shafiqur Rahman Barq from Sambhal were the only victors. Political analysts believe that the post-2014 election consolidation of other backward castes towards the BJP weakened the once-dominant Muslim-Yadav equation that propelled the SP to victory.
Denying Tickets to Yadavs Outside the Family Could Backfire
While the Yadav community has been the core voter group for the Samajwadi Party, the way Akhilesh Yadav has limited tickets to his family members could be misinterpreted. The BJP and BSP have been propagating that the SP only regards the Yadavs within the family as true representatives. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP is contesting 62 out of the state's 80 seats, with the rest allocated to allied parties. However, this time, the party's candidate list includes only five Yadavs, with Akhilesh himself running from Kannauj and his wife Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri. Other Yadav candidates include Dharmendra Yadav from Azamgarh, Aditya Yadav, Shivpal Yadav's son from Badaun, and Akshay Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav's son from Firozabad. The efforts of other parties such as the BJP and BSP to woo the Yadav community suggest a possible split in the Yadav vote bank. The BSP has fielded four Yadav candidates.
BJP's Quest to Win Over Yadav Voters
The BJP central leadership has put considerable effort into courting Yadav votes over the years, understanding that capturing these votes in UP and Bihar is critical. This might be why Mohan Yadav was appointed as Madhya Pradesh's Chief Minister, sending a message to the Yadav community that they can reach the highest positions within the party. In a bid to woo the community, the ruling party has been organizing visits for Mohan Yadav to dominant Yadav regions. Following in this vein, the Indian government posthumously honoured Mulayam Singh Yadav with the Padma Vibhushan award. The UP's most prominent Yadav association has also aligned with the BJP.
While the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Mohan Yadav, subtly accused the SP of nepotism and brought up the issue of Lord Krishna's birthplace, the political intentions are clear. By highlighting the development of Brajbhoomi and connecting it to Karhal and Jaswant Nagar, the BJP has made it evident that it aims to sweep up Yadav votes.
Support from Non-Yadav Backward Classes
In the third phase of the elections, non-Yadav votes, especially from the Lodh community, have emerged as a decisive force. In other constituencies, the Kacchi, Shakya, and Murao communities also hold significant sway. With the influence of former UP CM Kalyan Singh, the Lodh community has become a core voter group for the BJP, and the party has also made inroads into the Kacchi and Shakya votes. As long as Mulayam Singh Yadav remained in power, he managed to retain these communities' support for the SP. Accordingly, it appears that for this election, Akhilesh Yadav has crafted the PDA formula – backward, Dalit, minority – to expand the voter base. Yet, the support he receives from non-Yadav backward classes in eastern UP may not be replicated in the western region.
Congress On Board but BSP Sits This Out
This election presents a significant challenge for the SP as it finds itself without the support of the BSP. In the previous 2019 elections, the BJP managed to win eight out of these 10 seats, while the SP, in alliance with the BSP, only carried two. This year, without the BSP and RLD backing them, the SP does have the support of the Congress. However, the presence of the BSP has turned the contest into a triangular battle for each seat.
The Absence of Mulayam Singh Yadav
For the first time, the SP is entering the Lok Sabha elections without Mulayam Singh Yadav, thus presenting a stern test for Akhilesh Yadav. Mulayam played a key role in every election since the party's inception. With Akhilesh leading the opposition alliance in UP, the SP's performance in the last two Lok Sabha and two assembly elections has been unimpressive. Mulayam's grounded approach earned him the moniker 'Dharti Putra' (son of soil), as he managed to represent both the Yadavs and the broader backward classes effectively. His rapport with leaders from these communities ensured the party's appeal. His stronghold over influential Yadav and other significant backward caste seats like Itawa, Mainpuri, and Kannauj is legendary. It sometimes appears that Akhilesh's politics may lead to even the core voters, Yadavs, and Muslims, to abandon him. The extent to which Azam Khan supports him today is unclear. Key allies like Omprakash Rajbhar, Sanjay Nishad, Jayant Chaudhary, Dara Singh Chauhan, Keshav Dev Maurya, etc., have departed. His relationship with Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) has also deteriorated.
