By-elections took place on June 20 for five assembly seats across four states. Results were declared on June 23. In these elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won one out of two contested seats in Gujarat, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) secured the other. In Punjab, AAP managed to retain its seat, meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) upheld its hold on the Kaliaganj seat in West Bengal. The ruling Left faced defeat in Kerala. These results present warning signs for every party, from the Left to TMC and Congress.
Warnings for Every Party in By-Election Results
The by-election outcomes convey cautionary messages to all parties. In Gujarat, the BJP managed a hard-won victory. The party poured considerable effort into the Vavsadar seat once dominated by Keshubhai Patel. Chief Minister Bhupendrabhai Patel attended the nomination of the BJP candidate. However, not only did the BJP fail to win, but their loss margin increased compared to the assembly election. The party has struggled to bloom on this seat since the 2007 state elections.
AAP's Lesson in Ludhiana West
In Ludhiana West, the AAP candidate Sanjeev Arora emerged victorious. Although the victory margin widened for AAP, their overall vote count fell short compared to the state election. Gurpreet Bassi Gogi had secured 40,443 votes during the assembly elections, whereas Sanjeev Arora garnered 35,144 in the by-election. Nearly double AAP's votes went to BJP's Jeewan Gupta.
TMC's Victory and Rising Concerns in West Bengal
TMC retained the Kaliaganj assembly seat in West Bengal's Nadia district by a significant margin, with Alifa Ahmed defeating BJP's Ashish Ghosh by 50,049 votes. Nonetheless, certain facts contribute to TMC's growing concerns. Alifa Ahmed, daughter of the late Nasiruddin Ahmed, whose passing left the Kaliaganj seat vacant, received nearly an equivalent number of votes as her father did in the assembly election.
Troubling for TMC is the BJP's performance, securing over 52,000 votes and claiming second place. The BJP asserted that its share among Hindu voters has increased, which, if true, could be a polarizing factor in a state with 70% Hindu population ahead of assembly elections.
Alarm Bells for Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala?
With state elections set for next year, Congress's win in the Nilambur by-election is perceived as a warning for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left alliance. In its second consecutive term, Vijayan's government faces the challenge of countering ten years of incumbent fatigue.
In Nilambur, Congress's Aryadan Shaukat defeated the Left candidate M. Swaraj by over 11,000 votes. PD Anvar, the Left-backed winner of the seat during the assembly elections, fell to third place, despite securing around 20,000 votes.
General Warnings for Congress Beyond Kerala
Outside Kerala, Congress faces cautionary signs everywhere. In Gujarat's Vavsadar, the party ended in third place. Although it claimed second place on the Kadi seat, the loss margin exceeded 39,000 votes. These outcomes present significant warnings for Congress before the Gujarat elections.
Moreover, in Punjab, Congress's Bharat Bhushan Ashu secured the second spot, but competition seemed closer with BJP's Jeewan Gupta, who finished third. In West Bengal, the Grand Old Party's candidate, aligned with the Left, also ended in third place.
