The Bihar assembly elections have hit a snag over seat sharing between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. Each side has figures applying pressure on major parties. Within the NDA, two players stand out: Chirag Paswan's party and the HAM party, both led by ministers at the center.
The Mahagathbandhan faces similar issues with seat distribution. Mukesh Sahni's party, initially requesting 60 seats, is unwilling to contest with less than 30 seats. Meanwhile, leftist parties, which contested 29 seats last time, now demand between 40 and 45 seats.
RJD, having contested 144 seats in the previous election, refuses to go below 135, although Congress has reduced its seat demand from 55 to 60 compared to last time. Extracting 30 seats for Mukesh Sahni remains challenging, especially since he is also seeking the Deputy CM position.
Traditionally, major parties delay seat allocation to exert last-minute pressure on allies and dictate terms. However, this year presents a different scenario as BJP lacks full majority at the center. Furthermore, the influence of Prashant Kishor, proposing to contest all 243 seats, remains significant.
Looking at the NDA, the seat distribution remains unresolved. Discussions between BJP and JDU have occurred, but exact numbers aren't finalized. Among smaller allies, there's agreement for Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha to share 30 to 35 seats.
Nonetheless, when BJP requested candidate lists from allies, Chirag Paswan's LJP(R) responded with a list of 45 candidates, while Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi provided lists for 20 and 18 seats, respectively.
In truth, Chirag Paswan hasn't made specific seat demands, but believes a formula should exist for seat distribution. If evaluated based on Lok Sabha seats, one equals six seats, suggesting Chirag deserves approximately 30 seats, with Manjhi entitled to about six. This raises questions about Upendra Kushwaha's entitlement, since he didn't win a Lok Sabha seat. BJP and JDU have each won 12 Lok Sabha seats, equating to 72 seats each, which appears impractical as it accounts for only 180 seats.
Historically, JDU contests more seats in Bihar, yet BJP plans to field more candidates this time. BJP justifies this as they contested 110 seats and won 74 last time, whereas JDU contested 115 and secured only 43. Though undeniably, Chirag Paswan contributed to JDU's loss by 35 seats last time.
Regarding Mahagathbandhan's stance, the VIP party, once demanding 60 seats, aims to contest at least 30. But they expect only 20 to 22 seats, leaving Mukesh Sahni's next move uncertain. In the last election, he split with Mahagathbandhan over seat issues, joining NDA. This time, Tejashwi Yadav is determined to prevent a repeat, even if it means accommodating RJD candidates under VIP's ticket.
Both alliances must swiftly resolve seat-sharing. Resolution could occur within 24 to 48 hours. Tonight, BJP leaders may consult with Chirag Paswan in Delhi. Concurrently, after Congress election committee meetings, Mahagathbandhan may announce their seat arrangements by Thursday.
