As Bihar gears up for its legislative assembly elections, both the Grand Alliance and the NDA have meticulously laid their political strategies. While focusing on the backward and extremely backward voters, all eyes are also on the Dalit vote bank in Bihar. The reason is clear: Dalits make up 20% of the electorate, encompassing various castes.
Indeed, there’s a powerful competition between the two major coalitions to secure the Dalit vote bank in Bihar's elections. Already having leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi, who come from the Dalit community, the NDA is facing a challenge from Congress as they appoint MLA Rajesh Ram to lead the party in the region, aiming to dismantle NDA’s monopoly on Dalit votes.
In aligning with its future strategy, Congress replaced Akhilesh Prasad Singh, a Bihar Upper Caste Rajya Sabha member, with Rajesh Ram as the state’s front figure, highlighting Congress’s focus on the Dalit vote bank.
Understanding the Dalit Vote Bank in Bihar
In Bihar, a total of 20% of voters belong to the Dalit community. The largest section comprises the Ravidas community, making up 31% and their presence in nearly every assembly constituency significantly influences election outcomes. Following the Ravidas, the next largest Dalit demographic is the Paswan community, constituting 30%. Like the Ravidas, the Paswan community’s presence is crucial in every constituency, playing a decisive role. After these, the third largest Dalit group is the Musahar or Manjhi community, representing 14%.
40 Reserved Seats in Bihar
Out of Bihar's 243-seat assembly, 40 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Currently, the NDA occupies 21 of these 40 seats, while the Grand Alliance holds 17. The current figures highlight that the BJP and JD(U) have the most Dalit MLAs in the present assembly, with the BJP having 9 and JD(U) 8. Clearly, both coalitions will strive for victories in these 40 reserved seats, but it's notable that Dalit voters also play a crucial role in many general seats.
The Grand Alliance’s Dalit Strategy
Currently, the Grand Alliance has 17 Dalit MLAs. The RJD and its allies aim to increase the number of Dalit MLAs in the upcoming elections, surpassing the NDA. During the 1990s, RJD and its leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav, had control over the Dalit vote bank, but over time, this grip weakened, leading to significant political challenges for RJD.
Political analysts believe that Dalit voters in Bihar’s rural areas do not feel comfortable with RJD’s MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation, largely due to the rural social structure. Tejashwi Yadav is well aware of these issues, which is why he frequently advises his supporters to consider Dalit inclusion in every election.
In the 2020 assembly elections, Tejashwi Yadav managed to breach the Dalit vote bank when RJD included the left party CPI(ML) in the Grand Alliance. This connection with the Dalit vote bank benefited Tejashwi and his Grand Alliance in both the 2020 assembly and upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
This experiment by RJD was successful, and thus, Tejashwi Yadav now places significant trust in allies like CPI(ML) to secure the Dalit vote bank. Meanwhile, Congress has also moved strategically by placing Rajesh Ram, from the Ravidas community, in a leadership position to secure Dalit votes. During the Water Rights March, Rahul Gandhi held Rajesh Ram’s hand through 25 districts, a move pivoted at strengthening ties with the Ravidas community, which makes up a hefty 31%.
The Ravidas community’s voters cannot be definitively categorized as supporting either the NDA or the Grand Alliance, as in Bihar’s border districts adjacent to Uttar Pradesh, Ravidas voters have historically aligned with the BSP. This occasional shift has led to BSP’s electoral wins in some border constituencies. Congress aims to position itself as a viable alternative amidst this scenario. The outcome of the Bihar elections will reveal whether Congress’s experiment succeeds and how much of the Dalit vote bank shifts to the Grand Alliance.
NDA’s Reliance on Chirag and Manjhi
When it comes to the number of Dalit MLAs, the current statistics favor the NDA, but the upcoming assembly election will be a major test. Following the Ravidas, the largest Dalit representation comes from the Paswan community, led by Chirag Paswan in Bihar. He serves as a Minister in the central government, and openly describes himself as Prime Minister Modi’s ally. In the 2020 election, Chirag Paswan did not contest with the NDA and his actions against Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) are well known.
Chirag Paswan’s independent move of participating in the election posed significant challenges for JD(U), reducing its tally to 43 seats, albeit Chirag’s party won only one seat. Despite this, it was Chirag’s maneuver that influenced JD(U)’s losses. For NDA, especially Nitish Kumar’s party, having Chirag onboard in the current elections is a relief. Even if they strategize for better seat sharing, the possibility of repeating the 2020 scenario seems slim.
Expert political observers assert that the Paswan vote bank is securely with Chirag’s party, indicating where Chirag leads, Paswan voters will follow in significant numbers.
Can Manjhi Secure His Community's Votes?
Federated in the central cabinet, Jitan Ram Manjhi faces his party’s own litmus test in the upcoming assembly elections. The question looms: can Manjhi align his community's voters with his party?
The BJP aims to secure a significant portion of the 14% Musahar vote bank via its ally, 'HAM'. Additionally, under Nitish Kumar’s political approach, the Dalit vote bank has typically supported JD(U) over the past two decades. However, the crucial question now is whether the Dalit community continues to back the politically declining Nitish Kumar. The BJP will certainly exercise various strategies to capture the Dalit vote bank in the election.
