Asia Cup 2025 Final Qualification scenario:
After losing to India in the Super-4 match, can Pakistan still advance in the tournament and play in the Asia Cup final? What are Pakistan’s chances of facing India in the final?
During the ongoing Super-4 stage of the Asia Cup, these questions are being frequently searched. The major question remains: Can the Asia Cup 2025 final be between India and Pakistan?
The reality is that Pakistan's progress in the tournament heavily depends on its match against Sri Lanka on Tuesday (September 23). It’s a do-or-die situation for Pakistan, much like for Sri Lanka.
If the Pakistani team loses to Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi, their chances will diminish significantly. Then, only a victory against Bangladesh on September 25 could keep their hopes alive, although reaching the final would remain nearly impossible. Remember, only the top 2 teams from Super-4 will compete in the Asia Cup 2025 final on September 28 in Dubai.
Sri Lanka vs. Pakistan: Only One Goal—Victory
Sri Lanka and Pakistan haven't faced each other in T20 matches for a while, last meeting in 2022.
In the 2010s, they played series almost every year. Sri Lanka has won their last five T20 encounters against Pakistan, beginning in October 2019. However, in the UAE, Pakistan has won four of the seven T20 matches against Sri Lanka, which means Pakistan has a significant advantage on UAE soil.
Will Pakistan Pray for India’s Victory?
The question becomes, how can Pakistan reach the final of the Asia Cup 2025? Pakistan is set to play against Sri Lanka in the Super-4 round on Tuesday (September 23). Sri Lanka topped Group B by winning all three of its matches, against Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Hong Kong, but lost to Bangladesh in their first Super-4 match.
So, will Pakistan pray for an Indian victory against Bangladesh? Before that, Pakistan must first defeat Sri Lanka on Tuesday; otherwise, they are sure to be out of the tournament.
The 'Men in Blue' will face Bangladesh on Wednesday and then Sri Lanka on Friday. Winning at least one match will push the Indian team closer to the final. However, Suryakumar Yadav's squad will aim to maintain their 100% winning record by winning both Super-4 matches.
If Pakistan beats Sri Lanka, their hopes of reaching the final remain. Their next match is against Bangladesh on Thursday. Defeating Bangladesh would nearly assure Pakistan’s place in the final, scheduled for Sunday (September 28), as this gives them two victories.
However, if the Pakistani team loses to Sri Lanka, they would be hoping for India to defeat Bangladesh by any means. Then, they must defeat Bangladesh. If India loses to Bangladesh, the possibility of Bangladesh reaching the final becomes nearly certain.
Can Pakistan Reach the Asia Cup Final with One Victory?
Another pressing question is whether Pakistan can make it to the final with just one win. Here, the net run rate will be crucial. But for Pakistan to reach the final with just one win, they would hope for India to beat Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Thus, Pakistan’s path to the final lies in India's victories. Even with a loss to Sri Lanka, Pakistan can still reach the final if both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka lose all their remaining matches.
It’s important to note that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are still in the race for the final. With one victory already, Bangladesh remains a threat, and Sri Lanka could upset any team.
Super 4 Points Table
India: 1 match, 1 win, 0 losses, 2 points, Net run rate +0.689 Bangladesh: 1 match, 1 win, 0 losses, 2 points, Net run rate +0.121 Sri Lanka: 1 match, 0 wins, 1 loss, 0 points, Net run rate -0.121 Pakistan: 1 match, 0 wins, 1 loss, 0 points, Net run rate -0.689
Can Team India Still Miss the Final?
Team India began the Super-4 with a strong victory against Pakistan, but their passage to the final isn’t guaranteed. They need at least one more win to secure their place in the Super-4. Losing two matches could complicate things for India too. One thing is clear: Pakistan’s fate in the tournament now lies in India’s hands. It’s certain that even with a win against Sri Lanka on September 23, Pakistan will be praying for India’s victory the next day (September 24). In the Super-4 match against India, Haris Rauf, Shaheen Shah Afridi, and Sahibzada Farhan made an impact, but now Pakistan's chance to play in the final completely depends on India’s performance.
