Renowned political strategist Prashant Kishor, whose analyses are trusted by many, hasn't earned his reputation overnight. He has made accurate predictions over the years. Now, the former strategist for Mamata Banerjee hints at an extraordinary lead for BJP over TMC in West Bengal. In a conversation with a media house, Kishor speculates, 'I foresee BJP outperforming TMC in every aspect in Bengal. Brace for Lok Sabha election results that will surprise many in favor of BJP. When I say that BJP will emerge as the single largest party, some people accuse me of being a BJP agent. But not making this prediction would compromise my professional integrity,' says Kishor.
One might wonder, what makes Kishor so confident in his claims, especially with BJP's lackluster performance in Bengal since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections across various local body elections. BJP's influence seemed to be waning. So, where is Kishor seeing a silver lining? Let's explore why his predictions might come true.
1- Modi's Refrained Personal Attacks on Mamata
In the past assembly elections, BJP was all set to make history, but PM Modi's personal comments against Mamata swayed the tide. TMC turned the 'DIDI O DIDI' remark, by PM Modi, into an issue of disrespect towards 'Mother, Land, and People', which cost BJP heavily. This time, BJP has changed its strategy by not making personal remarks on Mamata. Instead, the party holds TMC accountable for various issues. PM Modi, in his rallies, seems to be extra cautious when speaking about Mamata, as do other BJP leaders who are avoiding hurtful jokes or sensitive accusations.
2- The Political Equation of Sending Anant Maharaj to Rajya Sabha
Anant Rai hails from the Rajbanshi community, which is the second-largest Scheduled Caste group in West Bengal after the Matuas. This move has led to BJP's stronghold in North Bengal. Rajbanshi have historically won four out of the eight Lok Sabha seats there. In 2019, BJP secured seven of those seats, and this time they hope to win all eight.
3- The Advantage of TMC Contesting Alone
TMC's decision to contest separately from the India alliance gives its opponent BJP another opportunity to strengthen. With TMC's standalone decision, anti-TMC votes are expected to swing towards BJP, with vote fragmentation also playing in BJP's favor. Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury faces challenge from TMC's Yusuf Pathan, a celebrity cricketer and a Muslim candidate, potentially splitting the vote and benefiting BJP.
4- CAA's Potential Impact on Bengal Politics
Implementing the CAA was a key electoral promise of BJP in Bengal. Its enforcement is particularly beneficial for the Matua community, which is significant in numbers and politically pivotal. The community can potentially influence the outcome in Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas districts, along with the Rajbanshi community who will also gain from the CAA, affecting around 10-12 seats where BJP seems to have a clear advantage.
5- Sandeshkhali Protests Echoing Singur and Nandigram
PM Modi's ongoing campaigns in West Bengal and his focus on Sandeshkhali indicate that this will emerge as a major issue. Similar to TMC's movement in Singur and Nandigram, local BJP leaders view Sandeshkhali as a potential site of protest. BJP has even released a documentary titled 'The Big Reveal-The Sandeshkhali Shocker' to solidify this narrative.
6- BJP's Efforts to Unite Hindu Voters
Given the importance of Muslim voters in Bengal's politics, BJP's unique political approach has led to significant Hindu vote polarization. Hindus comprise about 71% of the state's population. Surveys suggest that around 55% of Hindu votes favored BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections. This trend, boosted by emotional issues like the Ram Mandir, is expected to unite Hindu voters and further polarize votes due to CAA.
7- Scheduled Castes Potentially Rallying Behind BJP
With SC communities like Rajbanshi, Matua, and Bauri comprising nearly 23% of the population, a larger turnout in favor of BJP is anticipated. In 2019, tea workers and tribals of Junglemahal voted for BJP. The emotive benefits granted to Matuas and Rajbanshis under CAA are expected to resonate with other SC communities, potentially leading to a bulk of SC votes for BJP. Recognizing Anant Maharaj for Rajya Sabha and making Nishith Pramanik, a Rajbanshi community leader, a minister has fostered a sense of belonging within these groups towards BJP.
