In January 2026, the protests in Iran have captivated global attention. For several weeks, millions have filled the streets against the Iranian government. More than 2000 people have lost their lives due to security forces' actions.
President Donald Trump of the United States has announced that help is swiftly reaching the protesters, sparking questions about possible US military action against Iran, such as airstrikes or ground operations. Could there also be a return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to Iran?
What's Happening in Iran? Background of the Protests
Protests began in Iran in June 2025, gaining momentum in January 2026. Citizens are voicing their discontent against inflation, corruption, and strict governmental policies. Iran's government has cracked down using security forces, leading to thousands of deaths. Internet blackouts and arrests are rampant.
Trump has declared that if Iran executes protesters, the US will respond forcefully. Tehran labeled Trump's statements as inciting political instability but has also indicated willingness for dialogue with the US. However, they warned of targeting American military bases.
Source: aajtak
Strategically, Iran's position is weak. Israel and Arab nations are urging the US to delay major strikes to further weaken the Iranian government. Yet, Trump's team is contemplating military options.
Will the US Conduct Airstrikes in Iran?
Trump has recently been briefed on military strike options against Iran. The White House stated that airstrikes are possible, but diplomatic solutions are preferred. By encouraging Iranian protesters and hinting that help is imminent, Trump signals potential military or other support. Airstrikes are likely since Trump has entangled himself in this scenario.
Source: aajtak
What is the Likelihood of a Ground Operation?
Although Trump has various military options, a full-scale ground operation is unlikely. Experts suggest targeted operations against security leaders but not an all-out ground assault. Reports mention the deployment of Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), but there's no clear evidence of US ground plans.
A ground operation would be highly risky due to Iran's mountainous terrain, potentially causing severe losses, similar to Iraq or Afghanistan. Trump's team is focusing more on air or cyber-attacks. Should war break out, Israel or America could be targets, but secret operations are more feasible than overt ground incursions.
Will Reza Pahlavi Return: A Royal Comeback?
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, is prominent in exile. He has played a leading role in the protests and requested quick intervention from Trump, indicating plans to return to Iran. Pahlavi urges Iranians to keep protesting.
He advocates for democratic reform, such as a constitutional monarchy with an elected king. If the Iranian government falls, Pahlavi’s return is possible as he becomes the face of the resistance. However, forces like the IRGC could obstruct his comeback.
Source: aajtak
Strategically, the US might back Pahlavi to instigate a regime change, though Iran frames the Israel-Pahlavi alliance as a foreign conspiracy. US military support could facilitate Pahlavi’s return, but it remains a possibility at this stage.
What Assistance is Trump Providing?
Trump has assured Iranian protestors that assistance is on its way, urging continued resistance. But what form will this help take? So far, there are no clear announcements, though it could involve military, economic, or political support. Trump has refused meetings with Iranian officials. The US has advised Americans in Iran to evacuate.
What is Trump's Goal?
While he seeks regime change in Iran, he aims to avoid a major war. Airstrikes could bolster protestors but invite Iranian retaliation. With ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, the US remains cautious. Domestically, Trump also deals with dissent, such as the Minneapolis protests, diverting attention from Iran.
What Lies Ahead?
The situation in Iran is uncertain. Airstrikes are the most viable option, with fewer chances for ground operations. Pahlavi's return hinges on the regime's collapse. Trump's support is mainly rhetorical but could turn into action if protests intensify. Strategically, it’s an opportunity for the US but also a risk of war. The world watches intently for Trump’s next move.
