Just a little longer... Soon, the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be unveiled. But the recent exit polls predict a third term for the Modi government, hinting at major success for the NDA in Maharashtra as well. However, the burning question is who did the public favor between the Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar factions of the NCP after their split?
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll forecasts that in Maharashtra's 48 constituencies, the BJP could win 20-22 seats, the Congress 3-4, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena faction 9-11, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction 8-10, Sharad Pawar's NCP 4-5, and Ajit Pawar's NCP 1-2 seats.
In this election, Sharad Pawar's NCP contested 10 seats and appears to be winning 5. On the other hand, Ajit Pawar's NCP fought on 4 seats and is estimated to win 2. Consequently, both factions could see a success rate of about 50%.
So, what's the difference between the wins of the two factions?
Sharad Pawar contested in constituencies including Baramati, where his daughter Supriya Sule was a candidate, as well as regions in Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Northern Maharashtra, and Marathwada.
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On the other side, Ajit Pawar fielded his wife Sunetra in Baramati and his nephew’s wife, a BJP leader, in Dharashiv constituency. This means in two constituities, it’s members from his family who are contesting. On the third seat of Shirur, Ajit Pawar fielded former MP Shivajirao Adhalrao from the Shinde faction, while on the fourth, state president Sunil Tatkare entered the fray.
Overall, Sharad Pawar seemed to have worked harder than Ajit Pawar in this election. His campaign was more visible on the ground, and his party workers actively stood against the BJP. Sharad Pawar at 84 years old, campaigned more aggressively than Ajit.
Ajit and Sharad Pawar's Campaign Tactics
For Ajit Pawar, the Baramati seat was a matter of prestige, as it brought him head-to-head with his aunt Supriya Sule. Sharad Pawar campaigned vigorously for his daughter as well as other candidates, also supporting allies in the Shiv Sena and Congress.
Sharad Pawar campaigned across Vidarbha, Marathwada, Northern Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, and Mumbai. Ajit Pawar, by contrast, limited most of his campaigning to Baramati for two reasons: he had fielded fewer candidates in this election, and losing Baramati could weaken his grip on the party.
Moreover, the BJP did not allow him to campaign extensively for other candidates, playing on the narrative that Ajit Pawar, once accused of corruption, had been 'washed clean' by joining the BJP. Thus, in terms of campaigning and popularity, Sharad Pawar seemed to have outpaced Ajit Pawar in this election.
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Sharad Pawar Makes Strategic Moves Within His Faction
Ahead of the election, 40 MLAs were associated with Ajit Pawar's faction, but some joined Sharad Pawar later on. This internal shift didn't appear to affect Sharad Pawar's political stronghold; instead, it posed a new challenge for Ajit Pawar in constituencies like Madha.
Overall, Sharad Pawar managed to rally his supporters and present a strong front against the BJP. The question of which faction is the 'real' NCP may be decided in the courts, but regardless, Sharar Pawar's efforts seem to resonate more with the public, making the Lok Sabha results crucial not only for determining the 'real' NCP but also for shaping the upcoming assembly election landscape.
