As we await the results of the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections (Jammu Kashmir Assembly Polls 2024), anticipation is at its peak. This year, the elections in Jammu & Kashmir were held over three phases, with the final phase wrapping up on October 1. What makes these elections significant is that they are the first since the abrogation of Article 370 and the first assembly elections in nearly a decade. In the 90-seat assembly, the majority mark stands at 46. Although the results will be announced on October 8, the exit polls have already been released.
Exit Polls Favor NC-Congress Alliance
According to various media outlets and agencies, the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance is projected to gain substantial traction in Jammu and Kashmir. Most surveys predict that the NC-Congress alliance will secure between 40 to 50 seats, reinforcing the likelihood of them forming the government.
Source: aajtak
C Voter: NC+Congress 40-48 seats Bhaskar Reporters Poll: NC+Congress 35-40 seats Republic-Gulistan News: NC+Congress 31-36 seats People's Plus Exit Poll: NC+Congress 46-50 seats
BJP Not Far Behind
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a challenging situation, yet it still garners significant support. However, it may fall short of a majority. The BJP is estimated to earn between 20 to 32 seats.
C Voter: BJP 27-32 seats Bhaskar Reporters Poll: BJP 20-25 seats Republic-Gulistan News: BJP 28-30 seats People's Plus Exit Poll: BJP 23-27 seats
Weakened Position for PDP
The People's Democratic Party (PDP), once considered a strong force in Jammu & Kashmir, now appears weakened according to exit polls. The PDP is expected to secure between 4 to 12 seats.
Source: aajtak
C Voter: PDP 6-12 seats Bhaskar Reporters Poll: PDP 4-7 seats Republic-Gulistan News: PDP 5-7 seats People's Plus Exit Poll: PDP 7-11 seats
Performance of Other Parties
Other parties do not appear to be faring much better. Although some surveys suggest potential for up to 16 seats, these parties might play a crucial role in forming a BJP-led government in the event of a hung assembly.
C Voter: 6-11 seats Bhaskar Reporters Poll: 12-18 seats Republic-Gulistan News: 8-16 seats People's Plus Exit Poll: 4-6 seats
Overall, according to the exit polls, the National Conference and Congress alliance seems near a majority, with the BJP not far behind. Meanwhile, the PDP's performance is notably weaker than before, and there aren't substantial expectations from other parties. It remains to be seen where the voters, after a decade, cast their decisive votes. Results will be announced on October 8.
