The Middle East has been grappling with tension, unrest, and violence for a long time, fueled by a conflict that started on October 7, 2023. Hamas launched rockets at Israel, prompting Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war. This conflict has devastated countless lives and families, claiming thousands of lives and displacing hundreds from their loved ones. Both sides have taken a significant number of hostages, all anxiously awaiting their return home.
The inauguration of a new U.S. President, Donald Trump, seemed to herald the end of this waiting game. A ceasefire agreement between both parties was initiated with the release of hostages. Yet, the situation remains complex. Within days of the agreement, both sides accused each other of violating terms, raising concerns among experts about the longevity of this hard-won settlement.
A Fragile Turning Point
A crucial turning point was reached on Saturday in the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Israel accused Hamas of detaining a hostage, subsequently halting the return of Gaza's citizens. This agreement, described from the outset as 'weak' or 'temporary,' further illuminates its instability as it was labeled a 'framework' rather than a solid pact by Israel. There is historical precedent for failed agreements between Israel and Hamas.
The Middle East's semblance of calm, initiated by Trump's arrival, was disrupted again on Saturday when Israel stated the absence of 29-year-old Arbela Yehud from the group of four women released from Hamas captivity. Consequently, Israel prohibited Gaza's citizens from returning north through the Netzarim Corridor, as scheduled under the ceasefire and hostage exchange on Saturday.
Yehud's Release Yet to Happen
The situation complicated further when it emerged that Yehud was held hostage by another Palestinian militant group, Islamic Jihad (PIJ), not Hamas. A senior PIJ member told CNN that Yehud would be released 'under the terms of the hostage agreement.' Both Hamas and Israel had been accusing each other of non-compliance with the agreement. Questions now arise about the ceasefire's durability, negotiated after more than 15 months of unrest.
On the same day, Israeli soldiers fired shot at Gaza citizens attempting to return home, referred to by the Israeli military as 'warning shots.' Yet, CNN footage showed hundreds fleeing in panic. The Israeli military reported no injuries in the incident.
Accusations from Both Sides
Hamas accused Israel of delaying the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and hostage exchange terms, claiming that Israel is merely wasting time by closing Al-Rashid Street and halting citizens' return from south to north. Hamas stated that Israel is responsible for any delays and that it could affect subsequent stages of the agreement.
America's Response Awaited
These events have also raised questions about how America, particularly President Donald Trump, will respond to these breaches. Israel had requested the Trump administration to pressurize Hamas for Yehud's release, reaching out to Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. CNN sought a response from the Trump administration, but there's been no comment so far.
Dr. HA Hellyer of the Center for American Progress and the Royal United Services Institute commented on the ceasefire's inherent fragility from the beginning. He expressed concerns about both parties' violations and what the U.S. response would be. The question remains about how the U.S. will navigate these violations and the future of this ceasefire.
Hamas's Propaganda Video
During another hostage and prisoner exchange, Hamas utilized the occasion for a spectacular show. A propaganda video from Hamas showcased four Israeli women before a crowd in Gaza City, receiving release certificates. The women appeared smiling and posing, expressing gratitude towards Hamas’s military branch, the Al Qassam Brigades, claiming they were treated well and kept safe during bombings.
This video is part of Hamas's propaganda strategy, similar to past methods. After the October 7, 2023 attack, videos portrayed these women in civilian clothing, injured, and frightened. Such propaganda videos by Hamas frequently spark widespread discussion, complicating the situation further.
Obstacles on the Agreement Path
Experts believe any agreement with Hamas is fraught with complexities, especially when Hamas seeks to leverage its position while Israel aims to secure hostages' return and eliminate Hamas. Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated that negotiations with an organization like Hamas would always have anticipated violations and delays. He added that the problem is linked to longstanding violence and conflict between both parties, which escalated after the October 7 attack.
Dilemma Before Israel
Israel faces a significant dilemma over how to safely secure hostages' release while extinguishing Hamas entirely. Israel emphasizes that Yehud's return is a key part of the agreement, while Hamas seeks to gain advantages through its own leverage.
'Hamas Gives Nothing for Free'
Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator, remarked that Hamas gives 'nothing for free.' He warned that Israel's threats to stop displaced people from returning north would not pressure Hamas at all. He advised Israel to let mediators play a more significant role to keep the agreement alive.
In the end, the question looms over the war-torn Middle East: how long will this hard-fought ceasefire, with its constant clashes and accusations, be able to sustain itself, and what does the future hold for this volatile region?
