The election atmosphere in Jharkhand is heating up. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has released its manifesto, gearing up for the first phase of elections scheduled for November 13 with 683 candidates in the fray, equating to about 16 candidates per seat. The second phase will occur on November 20, leading to results on November 23. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance plans to retain power by banking on the success of its welfare schemes and the popularity of Chief Minister Hemant Soren, especially with support from scheduled tribes and minorities. Meanwhile, the BJP, highlighting the shortcomings of the Soren government, is working on a comeback by expanding the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), including the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), and Janata Dal (United).
The core issues revolving around unemployment, inflation, and agrarian distress are central to discussions. BJP is campaigning on concerns like illegal immigration, religious conversion, and corruption. The emergence of Jayaram Mahato has reignited debates on local versus outsider issues. The migrant population in Jharkhand, accounting for approximately 35%, is often seen as more affluent than the local tribal population, breeding tension.
Notorious for its changing chief ministers and hung assemblies, Jharkhand saw relatively stable governments in 2014 and 2019. In 2009, BJP and JD(U) contested together while Congress, RJD, and JMM fought separately, culminating in a hung assembly. In 2014, BJP and AJSU joined forces, contending against separate Congress and JMM bids, resulting in an NDA victory. However, in 2019, BJP and AJSU parted ways, with JMM forming a grand alliance with Congress and RJD, clinching victory.
Source: aajtak
Regional Equations
For electoral analysis, Jharkhand can be divided into five regions: Palamu, Santhal Pargana, North Chotanagpur, South Chotanagpur, and Kolhan. Palamu has 9 seats, Chotanagpur has 40 seats combined (North and South), Santhal Pargana has 18 seats, and Kolhan comprises 14 seats. In the state, 9 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 28 seats for Scheduled Tribes.
BJP has consolidated its hold on Scheduled Caste seats, while JMM's grip has strengthened on Scheduled Tribe seats. South Chotanagpur has 11 Scheduled Tribe seats, Kolhan 9, Santhal Pargana 7, and Palamu just 1. North Chotanagpur lacks any seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Four Scheduled Caste seats are in North Chotanagpur, two in Palamu, and one each in South Chotanagpur, Kolhan, and Santhal Pargana. Scheduled Castes comprise about 12% and Scheduled Tribes about 26% of the state's total population.
Source: aajtak
Palamu Region
This area includes the districts of Palamu, Garhwa, and Latehar, bordering Bihar to the north and Chhattisgarh to the west. It remains significantly underdeveloped, with rice and sugarcane being the primary crops. The region has two Scheduled Caste seats, one Scheduled Tribe seat, and six general seats. The populace consists of 18% Scheduled Tribes, 25% Scheduled Castes, and 13% Muslims.
In 2014, BJP won 4 seats, Congress 1, JVM 2, and others 2. By 2019, the India alliance captured 5 seats, while BJP secured 3, garnering 37% and 30% of the vote share, respectively. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP leads in 8 assembly constituencies, with the India alliance leading in just one.
Santhal Pargana
With 18 seats, this region encompasses Deoghar, Dumka, Godda, Jamtara, Pakur, and Sahibganj districts, touching the borders of Bihar and West Bengal. It features one Scheduled Caste, seven Scheduled Tribe, and ten general seats. The populace includes 28% Scheduled Tribes, 8% Scheduled Castes, and 23% Muslims.
In 2014, BJP secured 7 seats, Congress 3, JMM 6, and JVM 2. In 2019, the India alliance won 13 seats compared to BJP's 5, with a vote share of 40% and 36%, respectively.
North Chotanagpur
Home to 25 seats, this region includes Bokaro, Chatra, Dhanbad, Giridih, Hazaribagh, Koderma, and Ramgarh districts, straddling the borders of Bihar and West Bengal. Four seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes. The demographics consist of 17% Scheduled Castes, 9% Scheduled Tribes, and 16% Muslims.
In 2014, BJP won 13 seats, Congress 2, JVM 3, AJSU 2, JMM 3, and others 2. By 2019, BJP and the India alliance were almost evenly split with 10-11 seats each, claiming 32% and 31% of the vote share, respectively.
South Chotanagpur
This division has 15 assembly seats across the districts of Gumla, Khunti, Lohardaga, Ranchi, and Simdega, bordered by Chhattisgarh to the west, Odisha to the south, and West Bengal to the east. The region holds one Scheduled Caste (SC) seat, 11 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats, and three general seats. About 51% of the population is tribal (ST), 5% are Scheduled Castes (SC), and 11% are Muslims.
In 2014, BJP bagged eight seats here, JVM secured one, JMM three, AJUS two, and others one. In 2019, the INDIA coalition maintained its lead by winning eight seats, while BJP got only five seats. In terms of vote percentage, BJP had 37% and the INDIA coalition had 38% in 2019. For the 2024 general elections, BJP leads in four assembly segments, and the INDIA coalition in 11 seats.
Kolhan
This region comprises 14 seats within the districts of East and West Singhbhum and Seraikela, aligning with Odisha's and West Bengal's borders. There is one Scheduled Caste, nine Scheduled Tribe, and four general seats. The region's populace includes 42% Scheduled Tribes, 5% Scheduled Castes, and 6% Muslims.
In 2014, JMM secured 7 seats, BJP 5, AJSU 1, and others 1. By 2019, the India alliance had swept in with 13 seats, leaving BJP with none. The vote share tally was 49% for the India alliance and 29% for BJP.
To triumph in these elections, BJP must strengthen its position in Kolhan and Santhal Pargana. By aligning with Champai Soren and forming a coalition with AJSU, BJP anticipates gaining traction in Kolhan. In Santhal Pargana, BJP aims to rally votes by focusing on issues like illegal immigration and demographic balance. This sets the stage for an intriguing electoral battle in Jharkhand.
