Voting for Bihar's four Lok Sabha constituencies is set for April 19th as part of the election's first phase. Today marks the critical closing of the nomination process, amidst persisting confoundment over the opposition alliance's seat distribution for the state's 40 constituencies. While the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Lalu Yadav, and the Congress party remain entangled in negotiations, the resolution remains elusive, in spite of continuous meetings from Patna to Delhi. The declaration is yet to come.
In the midst of the ongoing seat-sharing disagreement, the Congress high command sprang into action and convened with Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of opposition in Bihar's legislative assembly, at a meeting on Tuesday evening. Post-meeting, speculations suggest that the seat-sharing formula within the opposition alliance might see daylight on any given Wednesday. However, what's drawing the most attention is the stiff stance of RJD towards Congress. RJD, once vowed to defeat the BJP-led NDA in alliance with Congress, has seemingly left the latter yearning for every single seat it desires.
Bihar's Congress leadership had staked claims on about a dozen seats. After the exit of JD(U) from the opposition coalition, rumors began swirling that the road to securing more seats for Congress had eased. Yet, Congress seems to be on the back foot facing the towering figure of Bihar politics, Lalu Yadav. While the Yadavs initially offered Congress six seats, RJD continues to announce its candidates one after the other.
While the Congress leaders are evidently disgruntled by RJD's attitude, none seems brave enough to oppose Lalu-Tejashwi's decisions. With the Holi festivities behind, sources claim that RJD is ready to concede eight seats to Congress, although no formal announcement has been made thus far.
The current grand alliance is in such a state that if Congress doesn't get its preferred Lok Sabha seats, the possibility of a friendly fight on certain seats cannot be dismissed. Congress leaders appear ready for such an eventuality. The Purnia Lok Sabha seat remains the core issue of contention. Back in the 2009 elections amidst seat tug-of-war, the two factions independently dived into the electoral fray.
On Congress' Might, Lalu Gained Strength
Before discussing the statistical tale of previous elections between the RJD-Congress alliance, it's imperative to note that Lalu Prasad Yadav, once running a minority government through shrewd alliances in Bihar, eventually solidified his political clout, thanks to Congress. Gradually, Lalu breached Congress' vote bank of mainly Muslim voters. The Muslim voter base, forming part of Lalu's successful M-Y equation, was initially Congress loyalists.
From a social equations standpoint, even the Scheduled Castes and upper-caste voters were once primarily Congress supporters. Over time, these communities gravitated towards Lalu, and Congress suffered due to RJD's backward vs. forward politics. Upper-caste voters drifted away from Congress, to the benefit of BJP. Since entering an alliance with RJD in 1998, Congress has been unable to emerge from the party's shadow, leading it back to coalition politics given its poor stand-alone electoral performance. Considering the past and current state of Congress in Bihar, it seems that RJD has become an alliance of necessity for them.
The Enduring Congress-RJD Alliance Since 1998
-The 1998 Lok Sabha elections marked the first alliance between Congress and RJD, covering a total of 54 Lok Sabha seats across Bihar and Jharkhand. RJD secured 17 wins, and Congress succeeded in five.
-In the 1999 elections, RJD won seven seats and Congress five. RJD had allotted 13 seats to Congress, with both parties also engaging in friendly fights on five seats.
-During the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, RJD claimed 22 seats and Congress three.
-In 2014, RJD received wins in four constituencies, while Congress secured two.
-The 2019 elections left RJD without a single seat win, with Congress managing just one.
Alliance Performance in Assembly Elections
-In the November 2005 Bihar Assembly elections, RJD won 54 seats and Congress nine.
-The 2015 elections saw RJD taking 80 seats and Congress 27, with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) also part of the alliance.
-During the 2020 assembly elections, RJD won 75 seats and Congress 19.
What Happens When Congress Goes Solo?
The year 2000's Bihar Assembly elections, elections in February 2005, and 2009 Lok Sabha elections witnessed both parties running independently. RJD emerged victorious in 124 seats while Congress took 23 in 2000. In the 2010 Assembly elections fought separately, RJD managed 22 seats and Congress four.
