Team India's WTC Final Scenario:
India and Australia are battling it out in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, a gripping five-match Test series. The fourth encounter unfolded in Melbourne, where the host Australia seized victory by 184 runs, taking a 2-1 lead in the series. With this loss, India's path to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final has become complicated.
India is now teetering on the brink of elimination from the race to the WTC final. Only one match remains for India to seal a spot in the finals, set to unfold in Sydney starting January 3rd.
Even a triumph in the Sydney Test may not cement India's spot in the WTC Final. Under Rohit Sharma's leadership, India must rely heavily on the Sri Lanka-Australia Test series. Let’s explore the WTC final scenario...
India's Path to the WTC Final
- If India wins the Sydney Test, they must hope that Sri Lanka does not lose any of their two-match series against Australia and also wins the series, even if it's 1-0. In such a scenario, India will secure a place in the WTC final.
- If India wins the Sydney Test and the Sri Lanka-Australia series ends in a 0-0 draw, India will benefit and advance to the WTC final.
- Should the Sydney Test result in a draw, Australia will win this series 2-1. In that case, India will hold 51.75% points and will be out of the title race.
Source: aajtak
Sri Lanka-Australia's WTC Final Equation
- Australia has three more Tests remaining, including the Sydney match. Winning even one will catapult them to the WTC final.
- Sri Lanka only has one route—if the Sydney Test is drawn, they must achieve a 2-0 whitewash against Australia in their home series.
Upcoming Sri Lanka-Australia Test Series
Please note, the Sydney Test marks India's final game in the current WTC season. Following this, Australia will head to Sri Lanka in January-February for a crucial two-match Test series. Should India win in Sydney, the Sri Lanka-Australia Test series will be decisive for them.
South Africa Already in the Final
The South African team has already booked their place in the final. With 11 matches under their belt, they have secured 7 victories, faced three defeats, and achieved one draw, totaling 88 points. Their percentage stands at a commanding 66.67. The Australian team trails in second, having garnered 118 points over 16 matches with ten wins, four losses, and two draws, achieving a percentage of 61.46. India is currently in third place with 114 points from 18 matches, with nine victories, seven defeats, and two draws; yielding a percentage of 52.78.
New Zealand holds fourth place with 48.21% points, though they are now out of contention. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is in fifth place, but their chances of reaching the final have also expired. The Sri Lankan team has a percentage of 45.45 and could only reach as high as 53.85%. England is sixth, Pakistan seventh, Bangladesh eighth, and West Indies sits ninth.
Point Allocation in the WTC
The current WTC cycle, spanning 2023 to 2025, is the third iteration. The ICC had released the points system rules well in advance. Winning a Test match awards the team 12 points, a draw yields 4 points, and a tie grants 6 points.
The percentage of points is calculated as follows: 100% for a win, 50% for a tie, 33.33% for a draw, and zero% for a loss. In a series of two matches, a total of 24 points are available, while a five-match series holds 60 points. Rankings in the points table are primarily determined by win percentage.
WTC Points System Overview
- A win earns 12 points.
- A tie grants 6 points.
- A draw provides 4 points.
- Teams are ranked based on the percentage of points they accrue.
- The top two teams will meet in the final at Lord's in 2025.
- A slow over rate results in point deductions.
Remaining Matches in the World Test Championship 2023-25:
India vs Australia
Fifth Test: Sydney, January 3-7
Pakistan vs South Africa
Second Test: Cape Town, January 3-7
Pakistan vs West Indies
First Test: Multan, January 17-21 Second Test: Multan, January 25-29
Sri Lanka vs Australia
First Test: Galle, January 29-February 2 Second Test: Galle, February 6-10
World Test Championship Final
One-off Match: Lord's, June 11-15
