Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi died following a helicopter crash on Sunday. His helicopter went down in the mountains of Varzeghan near Tabriz city amidst an inauguration trip to Azerbaijan province. The details surrounding the crash have raised questions and spawned theories, ranging from potential foul play to the likelihood of this event benefiting certain political factions within Iran.
What happens now?
With Raisi’s death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will take the reins of power, though elections must be held within 50 days. According to the Iranian Constitution, the Supreme Leader, with Parliament Speaker and the Chief Justice, will form a council to elect a new president if the incumbent dies.
After Raisi, several candidates are speculated to vie for the presidency, yet Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Parliament Speaker, appears to be the frontrunner. Reports suggest Ghalibaf was eyeing the presidency after being edged out by Raisi in both the 2017 and 2021 elections.
Source: aajtak
The Iranian Political Fabric
The political framework in Iran is complex, with the Supreme Leader as the unequivocal seat of power, currently held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President’s powers are significantly curtailed, and many viewed Raisi as a potential successor to the aging Khamenei. Raisi’s death will likely shape the future political landscape of Iran, setting the stage for the succession not only of the presidency but also of Khamenei.
The Helicopter Crash Conspiracy
Speculation is rife that Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, may have had a hand in the crash that killed nine individuals, including Raisi. Iranian activists have posed this theory, seeing a path being cleared for Mojtaba's ascendancy. The crash has been linked to various conspiracy theories, with some suspecting it to be an orchestrated event to consolidate Mojtaba's position in Iran’s future power dynamics.
Next in Line for Supreme Leader?
Amidst the speculations about Iran’s next Supreme Leader, the powerful IRGC plays a crucial role. The political climate today is different from when Ayatollah Khamenei assumed the role. The IRGC will likely back a leader willing to work under their guidance. However, Mojtaba, while having support from his father and clerics, is not the preferred choice of the IRGC. If the IRGC resists, Mojtaba's ascent to Supreme Leader can be jeopardized despite the Constitution allowing for a leadership council in place of a single figure.
Source: aajtak
The Beginning of a Power Struggle
Raisi's death may signal the start of a new power struggle in Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s supporters have also rooted for Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader. Such alliances could result in significant shifts of power within Iran’s political structure, potentially redefining the country’s future trajectory.
