Nara Chandrababu Naidu might just become the kingmaker again. In political circles, the Telugu Desam Party's (TDP) significant comeback is labelled as the 'Mother of Comebacks'. After 20 years, Naidu is once again the name on every political pundit's lips, from Amaravati to Delhi. With the BJP short of the magical 272, they'll rely on Naidu to steer their government, elevating his stature in national politics.
The victory was anything but facile. Following a reduction to a mere 23 assembly seats in 2019, Naidu faced mockery from YSR Congress and a 53-day judicial custody last year over skill development issues. However, the May 13th polls were a powerful reminder never to concede. Battling every single day over the last five years, Naidu delivered a resounding defeat to his arch-rival YS Jaganmohan Reddy. The TDP storm swept away YSRCP's massive lead gained in 2019.
What catalyzed this dramatic turn that dethroned Jagan beneath an NDA banner led by Naidu's TDP-Jan Sena-BJP alliance? This outcome signifies Jagan failed to replicate what his late father YS Rajashekhara Reddy achieved in 2009: a magical consecutive tenure.
NDA's Political Strategy
The political calculus in Andhra Pradesh was decisive, ensuring that the alliance stayed within reach of power. TDP strategists also calculated a decline in support for Jagan due to the apparent antipathy swelling amongst the higher castes and urban electorate. Additionally, the rally of the Kamma and Kapu communities proved advantageous. Energized by the presence of Pawan Kalyan, the fusion of these factors knocked out the ruling party.
Jagan had pinned his hopes on the PWG – no, not the formidable Naxalite group, but rather a group of 6.5 million pensioners, women, and rural voters in Andhra Pradesh hoping to benefit from his governance model. Yet the results clearly show the 'PWG' didn't back him as expected.
The 'CIA' Factor
K Chandrashekar Rao and his BRS were defeated in Telangana in December 2023, perceived as corrupt and aloof, while KCR faced an inaccessible and authoritarian image. The CIA factor here stands for Corruption, Inaccessibility, and Authoritarianism & Arrogance. This led to YSRCP digging its own grave. Perceived as a party that begged votes in Jagan's name, on a local level, its MLAs and leaders wielded significant might, often considering themselves above the law. The anti-incumbency wave washed away any goodwill generated by direct benefit transfers, with public rejection of Jagan's ministers serving as a clear indicator.
Jagan realized this issue nearly a year before the elections, attempting to avert KCR's mistake of not replacing doubtful candidates. He went overboard, replacing or shuffling 50% of the hopefuls. This move sent a terribly wrong political message—by relocating one MLA from their seat to another constituency or instructing a Member of Parliament to run for a legislative assembly instead of the Lok Sabha, Jagan admitted that the former wasn't electable and was offering an inferior choice to the latter's voters. TDP attacked this approach, equating it to tossing aside rejects from one constituency to another.
Development, or the Lack Thereof
Jagan followed Kerala's governance model, focusing on education and health to elevate Andhra's Human Index. Yet people also craved jobs, better roads, and infrastructure. Jagan's failure to entice industries was a weakness, fostering perceptions of disinterest in tangible assets. Despite monthly monetary gestures, Jagan underestimated the urgency of substituting Hyderabad's losses with a robust capital. His concepts for three capitals appeared too far-fetched for a struggling state. Besides the 2023 Visakhapatnam Global Investors Summit, efforts to attract industries were scant. Overlooked was the challenge posed by Naidu, once celebrated as the 'CEO-CM.' This has led many youths to voluntarily campaign for Naidu's return, forming groups to aid his election. Stationed in his Tadepalli home, Jagan remained oblivious to the brewing rebellion at his doorstep—it just took Naidu reminding the electorate of his past accomplishments to earn their trust once more.
As for the flamboyant Pawan Kalyan, his transition from actor to a political game changer has been remarkable. His alliance post with Naidu inside the Rajahmundry jail proved his political acumen, indicating his readiness to sacrifice ego for strategic alliance seating. Pawan may still be a nascent political figure, but he exemplified that decency has a place in politics.
A Reign of Retaliation
Naidu's previous imprisonment seemed like a textbook case of political retribution. The incident galvanized TDP supporters, sparking a rally for Naidu that saw loyalists flying in from across the globe solely to vote. Such dedication underscores unwavering support.
A Journey of Footsteps
Nara Lokesh embarked on a 226-day trek from Kuppam in southern Andhra Pradesh to Visakhapatnam in the north, spanning 3132 kilometers. History shows that yatras in Andhra politics typically yield electoral dividends. Lokesh's pilgrimage established him as TDP's number two and built relationships of trust with the electorate—a quality that YSRCP failed to counter at every stride, gaining Lokesh considerable popularity.
Reset and Delete Politics
The perception that Jagan sought only to erase Naidu's work and legacy seems petty. Jagan's first act after taking office in 2019 was to tear down the conference hall 'Praja Vedika' built by Naidu, implying an obsession with obliterating his predecessor's work. It must be remembered—governance is a continuum, regardless of who holds power.
Family Strife within the Jagan Clan
Domestic discord has unveiled Jagan's inability to keep even his own kin in alliance. In stark contrast, four members of the Naidu family ran under the TDP banner, harnessing a unity Jagan's circle apparently lacks.
While TDP leaders are now focusing on their alliance with the NDA despite proposals from the INDIA block, one thing seems certain—Naidu has the final say on who India's next Prime Minister might be. The once-powerful CM during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's era has seen such a time again.
