The issue of Lok Sabha seat delimitation intensifies daily. On Sunday, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin chaired a meeting of DMK MPs, vowing to raise the issue in Parliament and ensure Tamil Nadu doesn't lose a single seat. Additionally, DMK MPs resolved to gather support from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, and Punjab political parties, anticipating a reduction in seats post-delimitation. DMK's strategy involves committing to a struggle against the Centre on this issue. To this end, DMK MPs will coordinate with allied parties within the India Bloc. The question arises: will Congress or TMC stand with DMK? Not only BJP, but the opposition is also at a crossroads about what to do. So far, no North Indian leader from the INDIA Bloc has commented on this matter. Let's explore why this has become such a complex issue for the INDIA Bloc.
1- What Will Happen to Rahul's Representation-by-population Idea?
Rahul Gandhi has been consistently advocating for a caste-based census for years. Wherever he speaks, be it in Parliament or on the streets, he raises this issue at least once. Alongside, he discusses representation by population. In events like budget formulation or Ram Temple inaugurations, he frequently questions the participation percentage of Dalits and OBCs. Given Rahul's campaign focus, it seems unlikely that DMK will receive his support on the delimitation issue. If Rahul backs special recognition for southern states, it would imply veering away from population-based representation principles.
2- How Will INDIA Deal with Rising Muslim Parliamentary Seats?
An essential point to consider is that if Hindi-speaking regions see an increase in parliamentary constituencies, they will inevitably shrink. This means minority communities stand to benefit most. Larger seats dilute the representation of Muslim communities, but with smaller constituencies, the likelihood of Muslim candidates winning increases. This scenario is evident in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal and even more so in Kerala and Assam. The question remains: can the INDIA Bloc parties, which rely heavily on minority votes, support delimitation favoring southern states based on population? Currently, the prospects seem slim.
3- Declining Fertility Rates Across States
Tamil Nadu, Andhra, and Karnataka have fertility rates between 1.7 and 1.8. Only five states exceed 2.1: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Manipur, with Bihar nearing 3, a notably high rate. Uttar Pradesh stands at 2.35 and is continuously declining. Except for a few states, all are witnessing fertility rate reductions. Hence, claiming some states haven't controlled population well isn't justified. It would be like unfairly labeling one community over another. Thus, granting special exceptions to the south could ignite controversies. Clearly, it's not easy for the INDIA Bloc to decide on supporting their southern allies like DMK.
4- Why are DMK's INDIA Bloc Allies Silent?
The significant question is why, if the southern arguments are strong, DMK isn't receiving backing from north Indian INDIA Bloc allies. Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, Hemant Soren, and Rahul Gandhi, who oppose BJP, yet hesitate to consider the 1971 census as a base. Journalist R. Jagannathan writes that if TFR reductions are solely rewarding, how can we justify the reserved SC/ST seat increases from 79 to 84 and 41 to 47 in 2001? Politically rewarding states for demographic performance disparities doesn't seem justifiable, especially not uniformly across all states.
