UK Develops 'Murder Prediction' Machine: Do Murderers Look Different?

In the 19th century, an Italian criminologist claimed that criminals had distinct features, such as a prominent chin, flat nose, and large ears. This theory was later dismissed. Now, the UK is creating a murder prediction tool to analyze data from those with minor offenses to determine future risks of serious crimes.
In the 19th century,

Source: aajtak

The idea of determining if someone is dangerous just by looking at their face is an old one. Can there be distinct facial features or behaviors that set potential criminals apart? In the early 19th century, Italian criminologist Cesare Lombroso suggested that those who commit acts like murder or rape have unique facial structures.

Though this belief was dismissed, many countries are now working on murder prediction systems to identify possible criminals. These systems, however, are based on different methods.

How is This Machine Being Built and How Will It Operate?

The UK government is developing a machine to predict who might commit murder in the future. Currently in its early stages, it will focus on individuals already in police records. It will analyze their records to estimate potential for serious crimes, similar to examining past incidents like assaults or weapon possession.

The UK Ministry of Justice indicates that the purpose of the murder prediction system is to strengthen public safety. Identifying potential threats in advance could allow preventive measures to be taken.

Why Human Rights Institutes are Concerned

There are worries that innocent people could be wrongly targeted by this tool, such as those committing minor infractions. It might categorize individuals with mental health issues or those who exhibit sudden aggression as dangerous. Moreover, the tool could become biased against specific communities, causing undue scrutiny.

murder prediction tool to identify people who might commit serious crimes - photo by Getty Images

Source: aajtak

Studying Historical Criminal Data

The ministry aims to understand which characteristics increase the likelihood of committing murder. By meticulously analyzing historical case data, they seek to identify common traits among murderers, be it in behavior or facial structure. Given that this is an experimental phase, it's unclear how identified potential threats will be managed.

The Debate on Identifying Traits by Facial Features

The conversation on identifying criminals by their features is long-standing. In the late 1800s, Italian scientist Cesare Lombroso claimed that criminals have distinct features such as protruding chins, wide jaws, deep eyes, and unusually large ears. These people were labeled as born criminals. This theory sparked debate for many decades, with some dismissing and others considering it factual. Eventually, scientists rejected this theory, arguing that intentions cannot be discerned from facial structures alone.

China's Previous Studies on the Matter

With the advent of artificial intelligence, old concepts are resurfacing. In 2016, China conducted a study by feeding thousands of images into a computer. Some images were of accused murderers, and others were of ordinary people. The AI was trained to distinguish between these faces, focusing on aspects like lip structure and the distance between eyes. It claimed a 90% accuracy in identifying criminal faces.

This study led to major controversy. Scientists argued that if a database only contains images from a certain ethnic or community background, the AI might perceive all similar faces as criminals or potential offenders.

murder prediction tool to identify people who might commit serious crimes - photo by Getty Images

Source: aajtak

Predictions by an American University Based on Images

Despite controversies, such studies continue. In May 2020, researchers at Harrisburg University in Philadelphia claimed they developed software capable of predicting potential criminal activity just by analyzing facial images. They promised an 80% accuracy in their tool's predictions after analyzing over 150,000 people’s facial features. However, following strong opposition, the project was halted.

Insights from Brain Scanning

In addition to facial analysis, brain scans have emerged as a method of identifying criminals. In the early 1990s, neurocriminologist Adrian Raine embarked on a study in American prisons with cold-blooded murderers.

The research began in California, a state notorious for such crimes. Over 40 inmates underwent positron emission tomography (PET) scans to understand the biochemical functions within their brains. The scans revealed significant shrinkage in several areas of the murderers' brains, particularly the prefrontal cortex. This part of the brain is responsible for self-control, and those with a penchant for killing reported particularly reduced prefrontal cortexes.

The exact reasons for prefrontal cortex shrinkage remain unclear. Scientists suggest multiple causes, including genetic factors and traumatic head injuries. It could also result from early abuse. Some people, including those who have experienced difficult relationships or lived challenging lives, exhibit different brain structures. However, scientists agree that having a smaller prefrontal cortex doesn't necessarily make one a criminal.

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