Donald Trump's possible return could greatly impact NATO, the world's most powerful military alliance. The US is the biggest financier. Trump has often expressed dissatisfaction and hinted at cutting or stopping NATO funding. If that happens, what contingencies do dependent countries have? Might this lead to a push for nuclear arms?
What is NATO's Purpose?
NATO, a military coalition, was founded in the early 1950s by Western countries to offer mutual military aid, especially against Russian threats. The US, UK, France, and Canada were founding members. Despite their strength, they feared the Soviet Union, now Russia. Post-Soviet Union, many former Soviet-linked countries joined NATO. Russia counters with the Warsaw Pact, comprising countries skeptical of the West's intentions.
Who Can Join?
Democracy and elected leadership are prerequisites. Financial stability and a capable military are essential to contribute in case of an attack. Countries can apply or be invited by existing members, followed by an approval process.
Source: aajtak
In his previous term, Trump warned NATO that if members didn't increase defense spending, US support might dwindle. NATO has remained a key topic in his current campaign, with hints of potential withdrawal.
Reasons Behind Trump's Discontent
The US currently contributes around 70% of NATO's total spending. In 2014, NATO members agreed to allocate at least 2% of their GDP to defense - the minimum expected contribution. Most fail to meet this target, while the US spends over 3.5% of its GDP on defense. Poland, Greece, and the UK follow.
Previous Presidents Have Also Raised Concerns
Economic struggles have led some countries to reduce contributions, causing frustration among US leaders. Trump's frustration has antecedents; in the 1970s, President Richard Nixon expressed displeasure at Europe's contributions, stating the US would support them but expected them to bear their own defense costs. Similarly, Barack Obama urged European nations to increase their defense budgets.
Source: aajtak
Countries Spending the Least on Defense
Despite having a sizeable GDP, Germany spends a modest 1.57% on defense. Spain, Belgium, and Luxembourg spend even less. NATO mandates this percentage for troop hiring, training, and weaponry to be ready against any potential attack, primarily relieving the US from bearing the majority burden.
Why Exit Threats Raise Alarm
Although NATO decisions are consensual, the US wields significant influence due to its military strength and nuclear arsenal. European nations have long seen the US as a security guarantor. Trump's threats thus cause concern as NATO's Article 5 states an attack on one member is an attack on all. Given the current geopolitical instability, anxiety among nations is justified.
Source: aajtak
Can Trump Unilaterally Withdraw the US from NATO?
Technically, withdrawing requires Senate approval with a two-thirds majority. Nonetheless, the President has significant foreign policy powers, including executing major decisions via executive orders without Senate consent.
Nations Heavily Relying on NATO
Countries like Luxembourg and Iceland possess minimal military capabilities, thus depending heavily on NATO. With no nuclear arsenals, countries like Germany, Italy, and Turkey depend on US stockpiles. Trump's presidency sparks defense debates in these nations.
Emerging Military Alliances in Europe
Discussions about bolstering military budgets are ongoing. The EU has established the Common Security and Defense Policy with a contingent of 300,000 troops to aid in emergencies, albeit with significantly less power than NATO.
