Who will contest from which seat for the NDA in Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats? It's finally decided. After days of tug-of-war, Bihar’s NDA finalized the seat-sharing formula on Monday.
Under the seat-sharing formula, out of Bihar's 40 seats, BJP will contest on 17, JD(U) on 16, LJP on five, and the remaining two will see candidates from Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha, respectively.
This is the first time in Bihar that BJP has been allocated more seats than JD(U). In the 2019 elections, both BJP and JD(U) contested on 17 seats each. At that time, LJP was allotted 6 seats before a split occurred within the party.
However, after the death of Chirag Paswan, a rift formed in LJP. One faction was led by Chirag Paswan, and the other by his uncle Pashupati Paras.
It's surprising that under the seat-sharing agreement, uncle Pashupati Paras has not been allotted any seat. It is believed that the whole scenario fell apart due to the insistence on a single seat. Indeed, Pashupati Paras was demanding the Hajipur seat, which Chirag Paswan was also eyeing. This seat in Hajipur is the same from which Chirag's father, Ram Vilas Paswan, was elected as a Member of Parliament nine times. Pashupati Paras was elected to the Lok Sabha from this seat for the first time in 2019.
Hajipur... the Legacy of Ram Vilas Paswan?
The late Ram Vilas Paswan entered politics in 1969. But he became a national icon in 1977 when he created a record win in Hajipur.
In the 1977 elections, Ram Vilas Paswan contested on a Janata Party ticket and defeated the Congress candidate by a margin of over 4.25 lakh votes. It was the first time a leader had won by such a large margin – a victory so significant that it found a spot in the Guinness Book of Records.
Following this, Ram Vilas Paswan established his dominance over the Hajipur seat. Excluding the elections in 1984 and 2009, he won all other elections from this constituency. He served as an MP from Hajipur nine times. The last parliamentary election he fought from here was in 2014 before moving to the Rajya Sabha. In 2019, his younger brother Pashupati Paras was elected as the MP from Hajipur.
Hence, the Importance of the Hajipur Seat...
The Hajipur seat is synonymous with Ram Vilas Paswan's identity.
Ram Vilas Paswan was successful in proving himself as a prominent leader for the Dalits and, leveraging this, founded his own Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in 2000. From Bihar, Paswan extended his reach to Delhi. As the Minister of Railways, he established a regional railway office in Hajipur, cementing his reputation as a doer.
Now, with Ram Vilas Paswan gone, both nephew Chirag and uncle Pashupati Paras have laid claim to his Hajipur seat. Pashupati Paras is the current MP from there, while Chirag is the sitting MP from the Jamui seat.
Both aspire to contest from Hajipur to carry forward Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy. Now that it's clear that the NDA hasn't allotted the seat to Pashupati Paras, it's assumed he might soon resign from his ministerial position.
Pashupati Paras has stated on several occasions that he wouldn't compromise on the Hajipur seat at any cost. It's rumored that the NDA was prepared to offer him the Samastipur seat, but he held firm on his demand for Hajipur—a stance that ultimately worked against him.
Why is Chirag Favoured Over Pashupati?
In 2021, following the LJP split, Chirag found himself isolated. While Pashupati Paras counted on the Dalit vote, Chirag embarked on the 'Jan Aashirvad Yatra,' which received significant support.
Throughout the journey, Chirag positioned himself as the rightful political successor to his father, Ram Vilas Paswan, branding those who split the party as 'traitors.'
Despite being outside the NDA, Chirag refrained from launching major attacks on the BJP, even calling himself Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Hanuman.'
Last July, Chirag rejoined the NDA and immediately staked his claim to the Hajipur seat.
The Dynamics of Hajipur
Ram Vilas Paswan was a towering Dalit leader. The support Chirag received during his 'Jan Aashirvad Yatra' suggests that LJP's core voters remain with him.
According to Bihar's caste census, Dalits form about 20% of the state's population, with Paswans accounting for just over 5.5%.
Paswan voters have always been the core supporters of LJP. Neither Ram Vilas Paswan nor Chirag can expect significant backing from other Dalit sub-castes.
Chirag's presence is estimated to boost the NDA's vote share by 5-6%, acting as a 'booster dose' for the alliance. It appears BJP leaders recognized this potential, perhaps explaining why the nephew was prioritized over uncle Pashupati.
With Chirag set to contest from Hajipur while Pashupati still insists on the same, a split candidacy could harm Chirag. However, it's believed that the state's sympathy toward the treatment Chirag received from Pashupati Paras after his father's passing could turn into an electoral advantage.
