The political scene in Dausa is ablaze with energy following Sachin Pilot's dynamic series of 25 rallies ahead of the Rajasthan by-election. The BJP has fielded Jagmohan Meena, brother to senior minister Kirodi Lal Meena, while the Congress pushes its own hopeful, DC Bairwa, propelled by the support of Murari Lal Meena. The Pilot family's stronghold in Dausa adds layers of intrigue to this contest. With Murari Lal Meena transitioning to a parliamentary role, this assembly by-election carries significant weight.
Betting on SC and ST Votes
This election marks a notable strategy shift as the BJP backs Jagmohan Meena from the traditionally Congress-aligned ST community, breaking a three-election streak with Brahmin candidate Shankarlal Sharma. While Congress usually leans on the ST's Meena community, this time, due to Kirodi Lal Meena's influence there, they've enlisted DC Bairwa as a promising Dalit youth candidate.
Influence of Brahmin Voters
This seat holds a significant general caste vote bank, including nearly 60,000 Brahmin voters traditionally favoring the BJP. However, the lack of a general caste candidate has ruffled feathers. State leaders, including Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma, are actively engaging with Brahmin representatives to soothe tensions, particularly among influential Haryana Brahmin voters.
BJP's Strategic Moves
Switching from Brahmin candidates to ST candidates reflects an adapting strategy to counter Sachin Pilot's formidable Meena-Gurjar coalition. The BJP is navigating the fragmentation in Dalit and Muslim votes, showing promise in these efforts. Additionally, there's talk of addressing Meena community grievances following Kirodi Lal Meena’s resignation.
Candidates' Strong Image
In the campaigning fray, Jagmohan Meena charms voters with his amicable demeanor and talks of government achievements while advocating for projects like bringing ERC water and turning Dausa into an education hub. Conversely, Congress seeks votes by highlighting BJP's 11-month tenure shortcomings, with DC Bairwa leveraging Sachin Pilot's backing and a reliance on Dalit, Gurjar, and other caste votes to make his case as a local candidate.
The Electoral History of Dausa: Dominance of Dalit and Meena Votes
In past elections, Murari Lal Meena has consistently defeated BJP’s Shankarlal Sharma by large margins, notably in 2018 tallying 99,004 votes to Sharma’s 50,948. The historical electoral narrative shows a strong trend of Congress victories in Dausa, despite occasional shifts, like in 2013 spurred by Kirodi Lal Meena's party, Rajpa.
A Tough Contest Awaits: Voter Balance Hangs in the Balance
With little distinction between SC, ST, and general voters, each totaling around 60,000, this election is finely poised. Despite a historical tilt towards Congress among SC and ST voters, the presence of BJP's ST candidate Jagmohan Meena could sway ballots. However, underlying unease about final voting intentions remains evident among the electorate.
Caste Dynamics Unfold
Meena - 65,000
SC - 57,000
Brahmin - 37,000
Gurjar - 22,000
Mali - 15,000
Muslim - 11,000
Rajput - 8,000
Vaishya - 10,000
Others - OBC
