Wayanad's electoral equation has traditionally been a stronghold for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. It was perhaps this confidence that led him to choose Wayanad over Amethi in these Lok Sabha elections. However, the CPI, part of the Indian left-wing coalition, has fielded a strong candidate against him, posing significant obstacles to his path to Parliament. The BJP has also presented a potent contender for the constituency. CPI general secretary D. Raja's wife, Annie Raja, is the candidate from Wayanad and a member of the CPI's national executive committee while the BJP’s hopeful is state president K. Surendran. Clearly, both parties have entered the fray with a resolve to win, a departure from the usual tactic of setting up nominal opposition against formidable candidates. The situation is compounded for Rahul Gandhi as he faces robust rivals and a strategic encirclement by the CPI on several fronts, making Wayanad a challenging seat to secure this time around.
1-A Strong Candidate from CPI
Rumblings within the Indian left-wing coalition suggested that CPI would nominate a lightweight candidate from Wayanad. However, the candidacy of a seasoned politician like Annie Raja revealed the party's ambition to win. Kerala's Chief Minister and CPI leader Pinarayi Vijayan is actively campaigning in Wayanad, taking a combative stance against Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party on various issues.
Annie Raja, currently the general secretary of the National Federation of Indian Women (NFIW), hails from the left-leaning Christian community in Iritty, Kannur. She became associated with the CPI All India Student Federation during her school years and later joined the All India Youth Federation at the age of 22.
2-The Left Makes CAA Silence an Issue
Winning over the Muslim community's backing is indispensable for victory in Wayanad. It’s possibly why Kerala's left-led government and CM Vijayan continue to target the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The left-wing government in Kerala has even approached the Supreme Court challenging CAA. In addition, under the Constitution Protection Committee's banner, a rally was organized in Kozhikode on March 22. Chief Minister Vijayan has made addressing such rallies a priority and has gone one step further by deciding to withdraw all cases registered in relation to the 2019 CAA protest demonstrations. This move positions the CPI for significant electoral gains by making CAA a central issue.
The Congress party finds itself in a quandary, bearing the brunt of anti-CAA sentiment, traditionally seen as a Hindu party within the leftist circles in Kerala. Congress fears that siding with the left’s anti-CAA stance may alienate their Hindu vote base while failing to adopt as a steadfast position could tilt Muslim voters towards the CPI(M).
Targeting Rahul and Congress, Vijayan boldly declares that the lone dissident voices during Parliament's debate on Citizenship Amendment Bill five years ago were from LDF. He questions the difference in stance between Congress and BJP regarding the controversial act.
3-The Communist Party Criticizes Rahul for Lacking Muslim League Flags
In a recently held nomination rally in Wayanad, the absence of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) flags raised concerns within both the left and right fronts of the political spectrum. A vital part of the Congress-led UDF coalition, IUML’s absence signified potential discord. While IUML flags were missing, even Congress flags were scarcely visible, replaced by a patriotic display of Indian banners.
The left has seized this as a campaign issue while the BJP has criticized Congress for the same. Kerala's Chief Minister, Vijayan, accused Congress of lacking the courage to publicly display Muslim League flags, highlighting Congress's desire for IUML votes without the willingness to embrace their symbols.
4-The Threat of Hindu Vote Split
The BJP's strengthening position in Kerala threatens to divide the Hindu vote, traditionally loyal to Congress. This time, with the BJP fielding a formidable candidate and the CPIMS capitalizing on CAA as well as the Muslim League flag issues, Gandhi faces stiff competition. K. Surendran, the BJP candidate, has been a seasoned electoral contestant in Kerala politics, narrowly missing a legislative assembly seat win previously. Should Hindu votes split and Muslim votes shift toward the CPI, Rahul Gandhi could potentially lose his grip on Wayanad.
5-Caste Calculus in Whose Favor?
With Hindus and Muslims approximately making up 40 to 45 percent each in Wayanad, followed by a 20 percent Christian voter base, the arithmetic poses a complex scenario. If the CPI successfully aligns Muslim voters with its campaign, Rahul Gandhi may find the once favorable demographics slipping from his favor.
