With six months left before the Bihar assembly elections, political parties are actively strategizing their campaigns. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi has commenced his tour in Bihar, beginning in Seemanchal and planning meetings in Mithilanchal and Gopalganj. On his two-day visit, he will address a public gathering in Bahadurganj and on May 4, he plans to hold another meeting in Dhaka, Motihari, followed by events in Gopalganj. Owaisi aims to launch his campaign with this tour, emphasizing his growing presence in Bihar politics.
What Is Owaisi's Bihar Strategy?
Owaisi's party, AIMIM, first contested the Bihar assembly elections in 2020 and made significant headway in Seemanchal, surprising political analysts. Their results impacted Tejashwi Yadav's chances for chief ministership. Owaisi's party challenged the traditional MY equation of the RJD, breaking into Seemanchal and securing five seats. This shift was pivotal as it resulted in the Grand Coalition's downfall.
Will Owaisi Disrupt the Grand Coalition?
In 2020, AIMIM contested 18 seats and secured five wins, establishing a foothold in Seemanchal. With Bihar's Muslim population around 18%, districts like Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar are crucial for Owaisi, where he achieved significant success. This year, he's positioned to expand his electoral efforts in new regions like Mithilanchal and Saran, aiming to repeat and surpass previous successes. Despite RJD's previous dark horse status, all eyes are on Owaisi as the Grand Coalition monitors his moves closely.
Expanding to Mithilanchal and Saran
While Owaisi has begun his campaign in Seemanchal, his plans extend into Mithilanchal and Saran, with meetings set for early May. His goal is not only to expand the party's presence but to make unexpected entries in areas that had previously overlooked AIMIM. Though the party won five seats last election, Tejashwi later integrated four AIMIM legislators into the RJD.
Challenges for Defectors to RJD
Party state president and loyalist Akhtarul Iman remains, while four legislators defected to Tejashwi. Among them, former MP Taslimuddin's son, Shah Nawaz, faced electoral defeat to BJP's Pradeep Singh in Araria. These defectors now face the challenge of winning assembly elections after switching allegiances.
Which Seats Are in Owaisi's Crosshairs?
Political pundits foresee no easy victory for legislators switching to RJD. Owaisi's focus on Seemanchal and now Mithilanchal and Saran suggests strategic battles on key seats. Certain Mithilanchal seats, defined by significant Muslim voter presence, are essential in Owaisi's plan. Notably, he also contemplates entry into Saran, facing challenges due to renewed ties between Shahabuddin's and Lalu's families, although he's poised to field candidates in key districts like Chhapra, Gopalganj, and Siwan.
Challenges Ahead for Tejashwi
Over the past half-decade, AIMIM's growth has weakened RJD in Seemanchal. If Owaisi advances into new territories, it could severely impact the Grand Coalition's prospects. AIMIM's focus on Muslim politics, attracted by Owaisi's strategy, might splinter votes away from RJD, aiding BJP and NDA.
RJD accuses AIMIM of creating Muslim voter discord to benefit BJP and NDA coalition. Despite Owaisi's outspoken criticism of both BJP and RJD, he's committed to challenging their electoral stance. Why, Owaisi questions, does RJD, when empowered, offer minimal cabinet presence and budgets to Muslims, preferring influential positions for Yadav community ministers? These inquiries remain unanswered, with Owaisi keen on destabilizing RJD's hold over Muslim voters, a tactic previously yielding success during the last election cycle.
Impact on NDA?
While Owaisi presents Grand Coalition challenges, his entry could stir religious and political themes, pressing BJP and allies on their ideologies. In a state on the verge of elections post-new Wakf Act introduction, Owaisi will critique BJP and NDA strategies, including targeting secular JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar. Challenging JD(U) and highlighting competition within Seemanchal, Mithilanchal, and Saran, BJP's true test will unfold in Saran. As Owaisi primes for his signature campaign approach, his initial target remains to be seen.
