Omar Abdullah's defeat in the parliamentary elections was quite an interesting event. Especially notable was his loss to engineer Rasheed, who was incarcerated at the time, from Baramulla, with a margin exceeding 200,000 votes. Known as Engineer Rasheed, Sheikh Abdul Rasheed is currently imprisoned in a 2017 Jammu and Kashmir terror funding case. The next hearing on his bail application is on September 11.
Could Omar Abdullah’s change in intention after losing the parliamentary election be influenced by that defeat? Since the abrogation of Article 370, he has insisted that he would not contest Assembly elections until Jammu and Kashmir is restored to its original state and full statehood is granted.
However, now he has filed nominations from two Assembly seats, Budgam and Ganderbal. Budgam is part of Baramulla, where he fared well against his rivals during the parliamentary elections.
Omar Abdullah’s party, National Conference, is contesting under the INDIA Block alliance, which includes Congress, CPM, and Panthers Party. Out of 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, National Conference is contesting 51 seats, Congress 32, and the remaining five seats are a friendly contest between the two. One seat each has been allocated to CPM and Panthers Party.
Omar himself provided reasons for his decision to contest the elections, though they seem insufficient. The need arises to understand if the alliance with Congress or a special consultation with Rahul Gandhi facilitated this decision.
How did Omar Abdullah change his mind regarding the Assembly elections?
While filing his nomination from Ganderbal, Omar Abdullah became quite emotional. Holding his cap in his hand, he made an emotional appeal to people in Kashmiri, ‘Today, I ask only one thing of you… my honor, my dignity, and this cap are in your hands.’
Ganderbal has been the stronghold of the Abdullah family, represented by National Conference founder Sheikh Abdullah, his son Farooq Abdullah, and Omar Abdullah himself. Although Omar faced defeat from a PDP candidate in his first election in 2002, he won in 2008.
In addition to Ganderbal, Omar Abdullah is also contesting from Budgam in central Kashmir. The last Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir were held in 2014, and Omar was elected from Beerwah, adjacent to Budgam. Both seats fall within the Baramulla parliamentary constituency. Notably, Omar trailed Engineer Rasheed in Beerwah but garnered more votes in Budgam, another factor for choosing Budgam.
The question arises of how Omar Abdullah reached the point of contesting from two seats, abandoning his earlier resolve not to contest at all. Omar sought to answer this lingering question himself.
Omar Abdullah states, ‘We are fighting for our self-respect, our pride, and our identity, which Delhi has taken away.’
Omar Abdullah has the full right to express his perspective. The statements he is making now, he has made infinitely since August 5, 2019, maintaining his refusal to contest Assembly elections. With no change in the situation, why has he altered his decision?
It’s no secret that the administrative structure in Jammu and Kashmir reflects Delhi’s influence. Leaders like Omar Abdullah and PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti have expressed concerns that until statehood is restored, Assembly elections have no relevance.
Omar asserts, ‘I cannot sit outside the Lieutenant Governor's office and ask for signatures for removing a DGP.’
Kashmiri leaders' meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi also demanded statehood first, followed by elections. The central government’s stance has consistently been to hold elections first and then restore statehood.
Congress has pledged to restore statehood if it comes to power, but remains silent on Article 370. BJP's Home Minister Amit Shah reiterates that statehood will be restored at the appropriate time.
Why would any politician contest from two seats? Rahul Gandhi has done so twice, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi did the same in 2014. Is Omar Abdullah inspired by Rahul Gandhi? Rahul contested from two parliamentary seats in both 2019 and the previous election, of which Wayanad was common. He lost from Amethi previously but won from Rae Bareli this time and retained Wayanad.
Omar Abdullah states that contesting from two seats should not be seen as a sign of weakness, but as a demonstration of National Conference's strength. He says, 'Contesting from two seats shows the momentum in favor of National Conference. When the votes are counted, we will succeed.'
What tips did Rahul Gandhi give to Omar Abdullah?
In Jammu and Kashmir, Congress has achieved a favorable deal in alliance with the National Conference. Obviously, National Conference must have thoughtfully agreed to allocate nearly one-third of the seats to Congress, possibly under certain conditions.
Rahul Gandhi discusses many things regarding elections in Jammu and Kashmir but refrains from mentioning Article 370. In his speeches, he targets the central government like he does in other parts of the country. During a rally in Ramban, Rahul stated, ‘Today, there is a king in Jammu and Kashmir... his name is LG... but he is a king.’
In Jammu and Kashmir, Congress' alliance with the National Conference makes their direct competition with BJP. BJP’s dominance is established in the Jammu region, and most of Congress' allocated seats are in Jammu.
Congress’ stance has been to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s former position, a policy outlined by Ghulam Nabi Azad while in Congress. Omar Abdullah's political stance aligns with this, leading BJP to question the alliance despite Rahul Gandhi's silence on Article 370.
Has Rahul Gandhi made any special promises to Omar Abdullah regarding Article 370? Has he committed to something similar to his promise of conducting a caste census once in power, in a way that he might have promised to Omar Abdullah about Article 370?
