India Today-Axis My India's exit poll forecasts a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA in the upcoming parliamentary election, with a significant gain in seats. Although, a decline in Muslim votes for the NDA is also indicated by the exit polls. In the previous 2019 elections, the NDA received around 9 percent of the Muslim votes, which is projected to decrease to 6 percent in the 2024 elections.
On the other hand, the India Block, led by Congress, is expected to receive a robust influx of Muslim support. Initiatives like Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra and the 'Save the Constitution' campaign have successfully drawn Muslim votes towards Congress, leading to an estimated dramatic increase of 24 percent in their favor. From receiving 52 percent of the Muslim votes in 2019, the India Block might ascend to 76 percent in this election.
Source: aajtak
The data from the exit polls suggest that the India Block could garner an additional 38 percent of the Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh, with a significant share being diverted from BSP to the India Block.
The BSP contested separately in UP and fielded several Muslim candidates. However, the exit polls show no significant gains for Mayawati's party from this move.
Despite measures such as banning triple talaq and empowering Muslim women, the NDA is anticipated to lose about 6 percent of the Muslim vote share in UP.
Like Uttar Pradesh, a similar trend is observed in Bihar, with the India Block potentially gaining 16 percent more Muslim votes—that includes a 5 percent shift from NDA and an 11 percent switch from other parties.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's TMC is also projected to see a 2 percent decline in Muslim votes. In Jharkhand, a shift of 4 percent from NDA and 2 percent from other parties to the India Block is expected.
Source: aajtak
Furthermore, it is expected that the NDA will see an upward trend in the votes from Scheduled Tribes (ST), Other Backward Classes (OBC), and general demographic categories. The ST votes are anticipated to increase from 47% to 48%, OBC from 56% to 58%, and from general category from 60% to 64%. Votes from other demographics potentially growing by 4% to 48% for the NDA are also on the horizon.
