The Mokama seat is grabbing the most attention in the Bihar Assembly elections. Situated in the Patna district, Mokama has already been marked as a hot seat when the RJD fielded Veena Devi, wife of another local strongman Surajbhan Singh, against the JDU's Anant Singh. Their face-off hinted that this Bihar election would be unique. Just six days before voting, the murder of Dularchand Yadav catapulted Mokama into the spotlight once more.
The blame for Dularchand's death landed on Anant Singh and his supporters. Anant Singh is now behind bars regarding this case. Dularchand was reportedly a supporter of the Jan Suraj Party. Following his death, unrest simmered through the area from Mokama to Barh for almost 36 hours, quelled only when Anant Singh was arrested. With his arrest, the administration has been striving to curb election-related violence in Mokama. The state's DGP has also promised the arrest of the accused from the opposing camp in this matter.
Mokama Seen as a Bhumihar-Dominant Seat
Despite administrative attempts to curb the election violence sparked by Yadav's murder, the caste dynamics in Mokama might take a new shape. It is predominantly a Bhumihar seat. History shows that since independence, the victory garland has always graced the head of a leader from the Bhumihar community in every assembly election held here. Bhumihars constitute 30% of the electorate at Mokama, equating to approximately 82,000 voters. Yadavs make up the second-largest group with 20%, or about 61,000 voters in Mokama.
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Also Read: 'Now Every Worker Stands with Anant Singh'. After the arrest, Lalan Singh takes charge of the election campaign in Mokama.
Dhanu Voters Play a Decisive Role Here
The Rajput and Brahmin voters, combined with other upper-caste groups, count about 28,000. Kurmi and its sub-caste, Dhanu voters, make up the third-largest demographic with approximately 47,000 voters. The Dhanu community of voters is often seen as pivotal in Mokama. Besides, there are roughly 25,000-28,000 Dalit-Mahadalit voters and about 11,000 Muslim voters. For the past 20 years, Mokama has been under the dominance of strongman Anant Singh. Over these two decades, Singh has won both on a JDU ticket and independently. His wife, Neelam Devi, recently clinched a victory on an RJD ticket in a by-election.
The Battle Between Anant Singh and Veena Devi
Anant Singh is once again contesting the elections on a JDU ticket. The electoral success in Mokama has been attributed to Singh's strategic assembly of Bhumihar and Dhanu voters, alongside rallying support from the most backward castes. This strategic alignment has enveloped other Bhumihar candidates with defeat. This time, the contest in Mokama is between Anant Singh and Veena Devi, both from the Bhumihar community. Meanwhile, Jan Suraj Party's candidate Piyush Priyadarshi's surprising entry has added a twist to the caste equation. Veena Devi challenges Singh with RJD's base support, while Priyadarshi attempts to penetrate the Dhanu vote bank.
Also Read: Major Action in Dularchand Yadav Murder Case, JDU Candidate Anant Singh Arrested at Midnight from Mokama
Dularchand Yadav was backing Piyush Priyadarshi, and now, with his murder, new caste dynamics could reshape Mokama. The electoral history of Bihar reveals that Yadav and Dhanu voters rarely unite under caste consolidation during polling. If the Yadav swing goes one way, Dhanu voters tend to counter it. This voting pattern allowed Nitish Kumar's governance for two decades, riding on support from non-Yadav backward and extremely backward voters. In Kumar's social engineering, Dhanu voters have played a significant role. His opponents, like Tejashwi Yadav, recognize this, likely leading Yadav to experiment in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to breach Kumar's social strategy.
Effort to Disrupt the Love-Kush Equation
To challenge Kumar's Love-Kush equation, Tejashwi Yadav fielded several candidates from the Kushwaha community in the previous Lok Sabha elections, continuing this approach in the current scenario. The RJD's selection of Kushwaha candidates aims to peel the Dhanu vote base from Kumar. In a calculated move during the last Lok Sabha polls, the RJD fielded Ashok Mehto's wife in the Munger constituency to sway the Dhanu voters, an effort countered by Lalan Singh, who effectively utilized Nitish Kumar's social engineering tenets to neutralize Yadav's attempts. Despite these shortfalls in swaying the Dhanu voters, Prashant Kishore's strategy may potentially hand an edge to Yadav now, as the Jan Suraj Party nominates Piyush Priyadarshi from the Dhanu community at Mokama, challenging the NDA's caste dynamics.
Also Read: Heart and Lung Injuries... Postmortem Revelations on How Dularchand Yadav Died in Mokama.
If the Dhanu voters walk away from Anant Singh due to Dularchand Yadav's murder, it might benefit RJD's candidate over Prashant Kishore's choice. After Yadav's killing, signals have emerged trying to represent that his sacrifice was for securing Dhanu candidate Priyadarshi from the threat posed by Anant Singh. With the potential alteration in caste arrangements following Yadav's demise, every candidate is focused on retaining their vote bank. The RJD candidate Veena Devi joined Yadav's funeral procession to win over the Dhanu voters.
Lalan Singh Takes Charge at Mokama
Following Dularchand Yadav's funeral procession from Mokama to Barh, political analysts speculate that Anant Singh might become the cohesive force rallying support from Bhumihar and other upper-caste voters. His arrest could also draw voter sympathy. However, Veena Devi's presence during Yadav's funeral may have upset the Bhumihar voter base. Post Anant Singh's arrest, Lalan Singh has stepped up to spearhead JDU's campaign in Mokama. Known for his close association with Nitish Kumar and comprehension of JDU's social engineering approach, Lalan Singh’s involvement indicates a strategic response, framing Singh's arrest within the larger narrative of enforcing good governance in Bihar. If the Dhanu and other backward castes ally with the Yadav community against the historic divisions created during the Lalu-Rabri era, it could reshape the current voting trends.
Also Read: Collect Weapons, Enforce Law and Order... Election Commission Acts Post Mokama Murder Case
A Test for Nitish’s Social Engineering
Nitish Kumar’s governance has strengthened these communities against the Yadavs on the ground, and Singh’s formula tripped the Yadav-aligned tactics in past Lok Sabha elections. The crucial question now is whether Lalan Singh can effectuate the same support for Anant Singh in Mokama. Despite backing from Bhumihar and upper-caste groups, Anant Singh’s path to victory largely depends on garnering support from the Dhanu and backward communities. The Mokama contest might seem localized, but it’s also a litmus test for Nitish Kumar's social engineering, while Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishore try to breach these foundations.
