The Maharashtra Premier League (Assembly Elections) is set for November 20. Competing for the trophy are two teams: Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) captained by Congress, with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) as players. The Mahayuti is led by the BJP, with Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) as players.
The MPL will unfold across six distinct pitches: Vidarbha, Marathwada, Northern Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Mumbai, and Thane-Konkan. Boasting versatile and expert players, each team must adapt to the unique characteristics of each pitch, demanding a specialized skill set to succeed. Players like NCP (AP) and NCP (SP) excel in the Western Maharashtra pitch. Vidarbha is a stronghold for Congress and BJP. Meanwhile, Mumbai and Thane-Konkan pitches favor both factions of Shiv Sena.
Unique Features of Maharashtra's Political Pitches
Vidarbha: Known for its dry conditions, Vidarbha faces low rainfall and is the epicenter of Maharashtra's agrarian crises. Over half of the state's farmer suicides occur here, with its per capita income at 30% of the state average.
Marathwada: Home to a third of Maharashtra's Maratha population, this region also suffers from drought (less severely than Vidarbha) and ranks second in farmer suicides. Its per capita income is just 60% of the rest of Maharashtra.
Western Maharashtra: Dubbed the state's sugar bowl, it's powered by a robust cooperative sector—sugar factories, credit societies, banks. Economically strong, it houses key automobile and IT industries.
Northern Maharashtra: Known for crops like grapes, bananas, onions. During the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, an onion export ban became a significant issue. While Nashik city is developed, other districts rank among India's 250 most backward. Here, Scheduled Tribes hold the political power.
Thane-Konkan: The third largest industrial hub in Maharashtra. Thane has the second-highest per capita income post-Mumbai. Predominantly urban, it's home to a considerable migrant workforce employed in factories and industries.
Mumbai: A 100% urban region, Mumbai is India's financial capital, housing the stock exchange and headquarters of various banks and financial entities. Its income per capita triples that of backward regions. Migrants comprise about 43.02% of its population, with significant communities from UP and Bihar residing here.
Source: aajtak
Which Team is Contending for How Many Matches?
From Mahayuti, BJP is contesting 143 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 81, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 59, and other allies on six seats. There's no candidate for Mahayuti on the Malegaon Central seat. On eight seats, two Mahayuti parties are contending against each other. On three seats, there are friendly fights between BJP and NCP (AP), and on five seats, between Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (AP).
BJP is contesting the most seats in Vidarbha (47), followed by Western Maharashtra (31) and Marathwada (20). It faces challenges in Vidarbha, where soybean prices are a major issue, and in Marathwada, due to the Maratha movement's impact. In Western Maharashtra, BJP contends with wily Sharad Pawar, retaliating for his party's split. A third of BJP's matches are in Vidarbha, where it's playing three-quarters of them.
Shiv Sena (Shinde) is contesting the most seats in Thane-Konkan (18), followed by Marathwada (16) and Mumbai (15). Facing off against Shiv Sena (UBT) in Thane and Mumbai in the legacy battle of Balasaheb Thackeray, Eknath Shinde held his ground strongly against Uddhav in the 2024 general elections. Despite Ajit Pawar having no contest against Sharad Pawar-led NCP, Shinde's Shiv Sena contests 40% of its seats in the undivided Shiv Sena stronghold.
NCP (AP) is contesting most in Western Maharashtra (25), followed by Marathwada (10) and Northern Maharashtra (9). Here, it faces NCP (SP) in the 'genuine vs. fake NCP' contest. Ajit Pawar faced defeat in the 2024 general elections, winning just one of four Lok Sabha seats. It competes for 40% of its seats in the undivided NCP stronghold.
From MVA, Congress is contesting 101 seats, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) 95, and NCP (SP) 86. Other allies will contest six seats. Without a candidate on the Kolhapur North seat, as their nominee withdrew last minute, friendly contests are seen between Congress and NCP (SP) and Congress and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) on two seats. Congress is vying the most in Vidarbha (40), followed by Western Maharashtra (19) and Marathwada (15).
It hopes to leverage the rural and agrarian crises in Vidarbha, seeking to continue its victory streak from the 2024 elections. In Marathwada, they aim to draw votes with promises of exceeding the 50% reservation cap for Marathas demanding quotas. Roughly 40% of Congress's total MPL matches are in Vidarbha, with two-thirds of these being contested.
Shiv Sena (Uddhav) is fighting the most seats in Thane-Konkan (24), followed by Mumbai (22). In Thane and Mumbai, it faces off against Shiv Sena (Shinde) in the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. In the 2024 general elections, Uddhav triumphed over Shinde in Mumbai, while Shinde clinched a direct win in Thane-Konkan. Shiv Sena UBT is contesting nearly half its seats in the undivided Sena stronghold.
NCP (Sharad Pawar) is contesting the most in Western Maharashtra (38), followed by Marathwada (15) and Vidarbha (13). It confronts NCP (AP) in the Western Maharashtra 'genuine vs. fake NCP' battle. In the 2024 general elections, Sharad Pawar clinched a sweeping victory, winning eight out of ten Lok Sabha seats contested. Sharad Pawar's faction secured 74% support of the undivided NCP, while Ajit Pawar's NCP received just 26%. It contests 45% of its seats in the undivided NCP stronghold of Western Maharashtra.
Which Team is Playing Against Whom?
Maharashtra's main political clashes are Congress vs. BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) vs. Shiv Sena (Uddhav), and NCP (AP) vs. NCP (SP). They go head-to-head on 169 seats, forming nearly 60% of the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly's strength. Congress and BJP face off on 75 seats: Vidarbha (35), Western Maharashtra (12), Marathwada (10).
Leading up to the 2024 general elections, BJP held the upper hand in direct clashes. However, that perception has changed. Nationally, Congress's strike rate against BJP rose from 8% in 2019 to 29% in 2024. In Maharashtra's elections, of the 90 Assembly seats they contested directly, Congress led on 52, BJP on 38. Vidarbha could be pivotal in defining these election outcomes.
In Vidarbha, farmers can sway decisions. The MVA has promised farm loan waivers and minimum support price guarantees, while Mahayuti proposes free electricity and raising the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi from ₹12,000 to ₹15,000 annually.
Source: aajtak
Both factions of Shiv Sena are in contention on 53 seats, with significant fights in Thane-Konkan (16), Mumbai, and Marathwada (11 seats each). Half of these battles are in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, where Thackeray dominates in Mumbai, whereas Shinde is stronger in Thane. Relying initially on leaders like Eknath Shinde and Narayan Rane, who have now joined Mahayuti, Congress, and NCP's presence is limited, amplifying BJP's influence in this region.
The NCP factions clash on 41 seats, with 20 solely in Western Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar garners sympathy as he plays the 'last election' card. Baramati witnesses another family contest after Ajit lost in the Lok Sabha to Sharad Pawar's daughter, Supriya Sule, expecting support from legislators with regional influence for local wins.
Who is the Weak Link in Mahayuti and MVA?
The Maharashtra election results also hinge on which team has the weaker link. In the 2024 general polls, this was NCP (AP) for Mahayuti. According to results from 2009 to 2019, 95 of the 149 seats BJP's contesting are strong/very strong, meaning they've won these seats two or three times in past elections. Of Congress's 101 seats, 39 are strong/very strong.
The ratio of weaker seats contested shows BJP with the lowest at 14% and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) the highest at 34%. Out of the 95 seats, Shiv Sena UBT contests, 32 are ones it hasn't won or contested in recent times. On 31 of these seats, they face off against BJP, where 18 are BJP's strong/very strong seats, affecting election outcomes.
Tension flared in MVA regarding seat allocation, with Congress admitting to granting too many to Uddhav Thackeray. Shiv Sena UBT competes on 5 seats that were strong/very strong for Congress and NCP. Will Uddhav prove to be the 'weaker link' for MVA in the 2024 Maharashtra Premier League (Assembly Elections)? Will Vidarbha define the trophy holder? Who will be the Man of the Series—BJP or Congress, or will Sharad Pawar emerge as the true strategist?
