Voting for the 11 vacant seats of the Maharashtra Legislative Council unfolds today, July 12, amidst torrential rains in Mumbai, heightening the political temperature. From resort politics to dinner diplomacy, the ruling alliance and opposition MVA are both heavily engaged in efforts to maintain legislative unity.
The tug-of-war over a single seat and four votes seems to be driving the resort politics. Yet is this all there is to it, or are the political parties taking extra precautions learning from a two-year-old political event in an election year?
What was the political event two years ago?
In the 2022 MLC election for Maharashtra's 10 seats, there were 11 candidates. Voting took place on June 20. At that time, the MVA government headed by Uddhav Thackeray, consisting of Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, had fielded a total of six candidates, while the BJP had five nominees. A victorious outcome for one required the vote of 26 members from the 287-strong Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.
The MVA then had the support of 151 MLAs: Shiv Sena with 55, Congress with 44, and NCP with 52. To ensure the victory of a sixth candidate, the coalition needed the support of at least five legislators. Conversely, the BJP, with a strength of 106 members, needed 130 votes to ascertain the win of all five candidates, with only two votes remaining for the fifth after ensuring four victories. Eventually, BJP candidates emerged victorious and the party garnered a total of 134 votes.
The MLC election that changed alliances
It was June 20. Immediately after the polling of the MLC election, Eknath Shinde, then a trusted minister of CM Uddhav Thackeray, became 'out of reach' for Shiv Sena leaders. By evening, as election results started to come in, news broke that Shinde had reached Surat, Gujarat, with a group of 11 MLAs. The leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena, and MVA switched to action mode to win back Shinde's loyalty, but to no avail. One by one, more MLAs joined Shinde, eventually moving from Surat to Guwahati, Assam. As the numbers at the Shinde camp grew, Uddhav Thackeray eventually resigned from the Chief Minister's office.
After the dissolution of Uddhav Thackeray's government, Eknath Shinde formed a new government with the BJP and became the Chief Minister. Out of Shiv Sena's 55 MLAs, 40 sided with Shinde. Eventually, the battle for the party's name and symbol also went in favor of Shinde, leading to Uddhav Thackeray forming a separate faction. This MLC election not only altered the seating arrangement of Maharashtra's government and assembly but also changed the political future of the state.
This year's contention: 12 candidates for 11 seats
Two years later, another election for Maharashtra's Legislative Council is underway for 11 seats, with 12 candidates in the race. The ruling alliance fields nine, while the opposition MVA has three contenders. Speaking of NDA, the BJP has put forward five candidates, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) two, and NCP two. As for the opposition MVA, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress have one each, and Sharad Pawar-led Shiv Sena is supporting a candidate from the Indian Farmer's Worker's Party.
The number game in the MLC election
The current strength of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly stands at 274 members. One candidate's assured victory in this election for the 11 seats would require the votes of 23 members. The ruling coalition, having fielded nine candidates, comprises 103 from BJP, 40 from NCP (Ajit Pawar), and 38 from Shiv Sena (Shinde), summing up a support of 203 MLAs, which falls short of the required 207 by four votes.
Meanwhile, the opposition MVA needs 69 votes to guarantee the win of their three candidates. Congress has 37, Shiv Sena (UBT) has 16, and NCP has 12 MLAs, with two from SP, one from CPM and one from PWPI making the total of 69, and when including the two AIMIM MLAs, the opposition's strength reaches 71.
Parties scramble to secure numbers
Both the ruling and opposition coalitions are engaged in a tight race for a single seat. The Mahayuti coalition needs to rally four additional MLAs beyond their fold to secure a win for their ninth candidate. The opposition coalition must also maintain unity among its three primary constituent parties. This ongoing struggle to consolidate and retain support is visible as all parties actively engage in the gambit. Prior to the MLC election, BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Ajit Pawar) relocated their legislators to a hotel, while Congress convened a meeting for its MLAs.
Three Congress legislators absent from the meeting
Three Congress MLAs – Zeeshan Siddique, Jitesh Antapur, and Sanjay Jagtap did not attend the meeting. Zeeshan, who is the son of Baba Siddique, joined NCP (Ajit Pawar) ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, and Antapur is considered close to the former CM Ashok Chavan. Congress stated that Jagtap, involved in a religious event in Pandharpur, had previously informed the party of his absence.
On the other hand, NCP (Ajit Pawar) politician Chhagan Bhujbal is also reportedly discontent with Ajit Pawar's decision to field his wife in the Rajya Sabha elections. Thus, the challenge for both coalitions is to maintain their familial support amidst these tumultuous political times.
