The Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, has been granted bail by the Supreme Court amidst allegations in a liquor scam. The bench, comprised of Justices Sanjeev Khanna and Dinesh Maheshwari, underscored the national election's significance as they dismissed the prosecution's argument against bail, stating the importance of voters choosing the nation's next government. Afterward, Kejriwal's vehicle was seen exiting Tihar Jail Friday evening, a potential major victory for both the Aam Aadmi Party and the Indian Coalition. Kejriwal's complex persona, being seen as both a villain by some and a hero by many, sharpens his political edge. Let's explore the myriad of political consequences his release from prison will bring.
1 – A Significant Advantage for Aam Aadmi Party
The Supreme Court’s words on Friday will likely resonate with supporters, strengthening the perception of Kejriwal as a non-guilty, criminal-history-free leader who isn't a threat to society. This sympathetic narrative could increase voter empathy for him in Delhi. An India Today survey had previously suggested that Kejriwal's imprisonment has already given the Aam Aadmi Party an electoral edge over the BJP.
While the BJP has historically won all seven seats in Delhi during the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the partnership between the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party may change that during this election cycle. Kejriwal's arrest could swing voter sympathy, complicating BJP's chances of sweeping victories in Delhi. In the last Lok Sabha elections, Congress coming in second behind BJP with AAP trailing proved Kejriwal was at the forefront of Delhi's political campaign. Now, both parties are poised to benefit from Kejriwal's release.
2 – Congress: Joy in Delhi, Dilemma in Punjab
Kejriwal's popularity in Punjab makes AAP a formidable force, challenging Congress. In Delhi, Congress will reap the benefits of the sympathy wave for Kejriwal's arrest, but they face a quandary in Punjab where both parties are rivals. AAP is set to gain in Punjab while Congress's position looks precarious. How Congress will navigate this situation remains to be seen, especially since they have previously accused Kejriwal of links to separatists. As for BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal, they are contesting independently for the first time, ending a decades-old alliance.
3 – Will Kejriwal Garner the 'Jailed Hero' Sympathy?
While opposition parties see hope in Kejriwal's release, it strangely comes as a relief to the BJP. Jailed Kejriwal posed a greater threat to the BJP than free Kejriwal. The portrayal as a victim has often elicited immediate public sympathy in India, as seen with prominent figures like Jayaprakash Narayan and Indira Gandhi. Therefore, post-release, BJP may find it easier to accuse Kejriwal of corruption. Delhi BJP leaders like Manjinder Singh Sirsa argue that the string of AAP leaders' arrests, accepted as normal by Delhi's public, negates any potential sympathy crisis arising from Kejriwal's arrest.
4 – A Boon for India Coalition Parties
The India Coalition parties are hopeful that Kejriwal's release will prove advantageous. Prominent leaders like Mamata Banerjee expressed joy, indicating the potential impact on the elections. Sharad Pawar also exhibited immediate pleasure. The India Block aims to capitalize on the bail as a victory against BJP and the Modi government, reinforcing their campaigns on conserving the constitution and reservations. Surveys suggest that the public believes that the center has misused agencies like ED and CBI to hassle the opposition. The coalition will strive to show that Kejriwal’s release is proof of wrongful arrests based on corruption charges.
