Exit Polls for Jammu and Kashmir Elections: Voting has already been completed in three phases for 90 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. The results will be out on October 8. However, the exit poll results from C-Voter have already been released. These polls indicate a majority for the NC and Congress. Yet, it's also evident that PDP and other parties might play a key role in forming the government.
Spokesperson Sheikh Nasir of the PDP has boldly declared to Aaj Tak that no government formation is possible without us.
Note that voting in Jammu and Kashmir occurred on September 18, September 25, and October 1. This time, the National Conference and Congress campaigned together, while Mehbooba Mufti's PDP and the BJP stood independently. Still, Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party and independents might hold the cards.
Source: aajtak
What's Special in the Exit Polls?
According to the exit polls, the NC-Congress coalition is projected to secure 40-48 of the 90 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. If these polls reflect reality, the coalition might succeed. Meanwhile, the BJP is anticipated to win 27-32 seats, while PDP and others are likely to gain 6-12 and 6-11 seats respectively, with independents playing a decisive role including Engineer Rashid and Afzal Guru's brother, among others.
Source: aajtak
Analyzing the Vote Share
Based on exit polls, the National Conference coalition is garnering a 38.7% vote share, BJP is at 22.9%, while PDP stands at 10.2%. Interestingly, the 'others' category overshadows the BJP with a 28.2% vote share. Their role will be crucial in the conversion of these votes into seats and consequently forming a government.
Source: aajtak
Also See: J&K Exit Poll Result 2024: BJP's Influence in Jammu, Abdullah's Dominance in Kashmir Valley... Know the Seat Predictions
Party-wise Breakup
Out of the four major parties in Jammu and Kashmir, only the National Conference-Congress coalition is contesting all 90 seats. Additionally, the Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) are also in the race. PDP is contesting 60 seats, and BJP is in the fray for 62 seats.
Source: aajtak
Sajjad Lone's People's Conference is vying for 22 seats, while Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is contesting 34-35 seats. Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party is contesting 23 seats, and the Apni Party is aiming for over 30 seats. Candidates from the banned Jamaat-e-Islami are contesting independently on 10 seats.
Engineer Rashid's party has strategically allied with Jamaat-e-Islami, where AIP is expected to support Jamaat candidates in South Kashmir, and Jamaat will back AIP across the union territory, especially in North Kashmir. This scenario unfolds challenging signals for both National Conference and PDP as traditionally, Jamaat supported PDP. However, both parties claim mysterious activities driven by unknown forces are at play here.
