Strategist Prashant Kishor, in a special dialogue with India Today, expressed that the BJP is poised to win approximately 300 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, and added there is no widespread anger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While discussing with India Today, Kishor emphasized that the solo attainment of 370 seats is improbable for the BJP, projecting near 300 seats for the party.
'Results Will Likely Mirror 2019 Elections'
Kishor said, 'Since the day PM Modi announced BJP would secure 370 seats and NDA would surpass the 400 mark, I've maintained it wasn't feasible. This is merely a chant to boost the morale of workers. Though securing 370 seats is impossible for the BJP, it is certain they won't fall below 270 seats. I believe BJP will manage to replicate the numbers they achieved in the last parliamentary election, around 303 seats or possibly more.'
Where BJP Stands to Gain or Lose
Elaborating on his 300-seat estimation, Kishor suggested that the BJP faces no significant material loss in the northern and western regions, whereas an increase in seats from the southern and eastern states like Bihar, Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala will be witnessed.
Delving into PK's Electoral Arithmetic
Kishor detailed BJP's stronghold in the 2019 elections, with 250 out of 303 seats coming from the north and west. The main question then is whether BJP will experience notable losses (50 or more) in these regions? Currently, BJP holds around 50 seats in the eastern and southern Lok Sabha. Therefore, there is an expectation of a 15-20 seat increase here, while no significant loss is foreseen in the north and west.
Is BJP Facing Setbacks in UP and Maharashtra?
Addressing potential BJP decline, Kishor remarked that the opposition expects to win 20 to 25 seats in Maharashtra. Even if the opposition secures these seats, BJP would not be at a disadvantage as they only hold 23 out of 48 seats in the state. Any increase by the opposition will not significantly affect BJP's stance.
On UP's narrowing margins for BJP, Kishor recalled, 'Remember, relative to 2014, BJP suffered a loss of nearly 25 seats in Bihar and UP during 2019 elections. After contesting alongside BSP and SP, BJP reduced from 73 to 62. If the opposition believes BJP will lose another 20 seats this time, they still won't substantially harm BJP, as it had already compensated losing 18 seats in 2019 with a gain in Bengal.' Kishor suggested that the opposition would need to erode 40 BJP seats for any significant impact.
Critical Impacts from Possible Seat Losses in Rajasthan or Haryana?
Discussing possible losses in Rajasthan and Haryana, Kishor stated, 'A loss of 2-5 seats might occur. Nevertheless, there isn't a state where the opposition seems poised for a significant increase. According to Kishor, BJP is not facing a maximal loss of 50 seats, as gains in eastern and southern regions will likely offset any losses.'
Why Do Governments Face Defeat?
PK explained that a government's downfall occurs when public anger is directed against the nation's leader. However, despite some discontent regarding Modi and the BJP's decade-long governance, there is no clear-cut case of manifest anger that could be labeled as antagonism towards the current government. Kishor opined that despite slight dissatisfaction, the general sentiment is not geared towards removing Modi.
Kishor emphasized a secondary reason for electoral defeat: the emergence of a new individual with a positive public image. People are inclined to believe that a newcomer would do a better job than Modi, triggering a desire for change. However, no such image or consensus currently prevails among the populace, indicating no urgent need for change nor belief in a better alternative.
Prashant Kishor's View on Modi 3.0
Talking about Modi's potential third term, Kishor predicts that there will be attempts to curtail the financial autonomy of the states. Discussing likely directives in the government's subsequent term, Kishor forecasted a 'spectacular beginning' with a centralization of power and resources and mentioned the possibility of reducing the financial independence of the states.
