Last week marked a shift in power within Britain and Iran. Keir Starmer achieved a resounding victory in the UK elections, while Iran welcomed a new President in the form of the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian clinched the elections, defeating the hardliner Saeed Jalili, following the tragic helicopter crash that claimed the life of the then-president, Ebrahim Raisi.
How will this affect India-Iran relations?
The 69-year-old cardiac surgeon Pezeshkian appealed to Iran's public saying, 'We face a challenging journey ahead. Your support, empathy, and faith alone can ease this path.'
Pezeshkian promised, 'I extend my hand to you and vow that I won't leave you alone on this path. Please don't leave my side.' While there’s no talk of changing Iran's Shia theocracy under Pezeshkian’s presidency, he could potentially end the mandatory hijab law. But the question mainly revolves around Iran's foreign policy, especially its relations with India. Let's explore how Pezeshkian's rise to power might impact these dynamics.
Source: aajtak
Challenges from hardliners likely
In Iran, ultimate decisions rest with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but President Pezeshkian could influence foreign policy. According to Reuters, the newly elected President has vowed to de-escalate tensions by reviving talks on the 2015 nuclear deal with major powers.
With growing concerns over Tehran's nuclear program, Western nations will keep a keen eye on Pezeshkian's next moves. His election victory has sparked hope for a softening of relations between Western countries and Iran, at a time when tensions in Western Asia are reaching a peak, particularly with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza.
While a complete overhaul of policies by Pezeshkian is unlikely, his decision-making is expected to face challenges from Iran's hardliner-dominated government.
Easing of sanctions beneficial for Delhi
India and Iran have enjoyed good relations for many decades. Trade and connectivity define the ties between Tehran and New Delhi. Despite also trading with China, UAE, Iraq, and Turkey, India remains one of Iran's largest trading partners.
Iran is a key source of crude oil for India. However, due to American sanctions imposed over Tehran's nuclear program, New Delhi had to halt imports of Iranian oil. Should Pezeshkian succeed in restarting negotiations on the nuclear dispute with the West, economic sanctions could gradually be lifted – a scenario in favor of New Delhi.
Both nations collaborating on various projects
An Iranian trade official mentioned that due to sanctions, trade between India and Iran has dropped to a third of its previous volume. According to India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, trade dropped from $2.499 billion in 2022 to $1.836 billion last year. India and Iran are also eager to collaborate on connectivity projects like the INSTC and Chabahar Port.
In May, India signed a 10-year agreement for the development and operation of Iran's strategic Chabahar Port. Despite the looming threat of US sanctions, New Delhi has perceived and backed this project. This port is vital for India's trade ambitions, providing an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, bypassing rival Pakistan.
India invests $120 million in Chabahar
India has planned a $120 million investment for the development and operation of Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar and has offered a $250 million line of credit for infrastructure upgrades in Iran.
The INSTC is 7,200 kilometers of multi-mode transport corridor that connects India with Russia through Iran. This project will enhance India's energy security and boost trade with Central Asia.
Global leaders have expectations from Pezeshkian
Pezeshkian is expected to strengthen ties with India, focusing on economic relations. Analysts told Reuters that global leaders could 'welcome him' as they hope he can ease tensions related to Iran's nuclear program.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Pezeshkian on his victory, expressing eagerness to collaborate and strengthen the long-term bilateral relations for the benefit of their people and the region.
