The Lok Sabha elections are over. Now, it's time for assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. This year will also see elections in states like Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Meanwhile, Aaj Tak, in collaboration with C-Voter, conducted a 'Mood of the Nation' survey to gauge the public's sentiment. With a sample size of 136,463, people's opinions on various issues and the popularity of leaders were collected. Opinions on Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde, and Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren varied among the people.
Let’s explore why each CM’s graph is rising or falling.
What do people think about the UP CM?
According to the Mood of the Nation survey, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's popularity has decreased. Survey numbers show that in August 2023, 47% of people were satisfied with Yogi Adityanath's work. By February 2024, this increased to 51%. However, in just six months, his popularity dropped to 39%. Despite this, Yogi managed to rank as the top CM in this survey. Numbers show that in August 2024, 33.2% considered him the best CM, though his support was 46.3% in February 2024. In August 2023, 43% of people considered him the best CM.
Source: aajtak
Why is Yogi Adityanath’s graph fluctuating?
UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s tough and straightforward image has made him a popular leader. His supporters see him as a resilient leader committed to state development and reform. His image as a strong and strict administrator sets him apart. He has taken several harsh measures to maintain law and order, making headlines with his strict actions against criminals and illegal properties. However, Yogi Adityanath's working style has its critics too, especially his opponents who never miss an opportunity to criticize him. Paper leaks have become a significant issue in UP. Accusations of paper leaks during the police recruitment exam in February led to demands for a re-exam. The government decided to cancel this exam, which has caused discontent among the youth. Nevertheless, the government is re-conducting the exam just six months later. Recently, the Allahabad High Court ordered a fresh result for the 69,000 assistant teacher recruitment exam. This discontent is visible on the streets. The discontent among the youth regarding employment is significantly affecting the government's and Yogi’s image.
What do people think about Mamata Banerjee?
According to the MOTN survey, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's popularity has increased. The numbers show that in August 2023, only 32% of people were satisfied with Mamata's work. By February 2024, this increased to 33%. In just six months, her popularity has soared to 46%. Despite this, she secured the third position in the best CM category in this survey. Numbers indicate that, even after the Kolkata incident, her popularity has risen compared to the past. In August 2024, 9.1% of people supported her, slightly up from 8.4% in February 2024.
Source: aajtak
Why is Mamata’s graph rising?
Several key factors are behind West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee's rising political graph. Mamata has established herself as a prominent opposition leader against the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. She actively campaigned against the BJP in West Bengal and continued the TMC's winning streak in the Lok Sabha elections. This helps her emerge as an important face of opposition unity at the national level. Mamata's image as a strong and determined leader, who stands firmly against her political opponents, has elevated her status not just in the state but also at the national level. Several social and economic development schemes in the state have contributed to her rising popularity. These include the 'Kanyashree Yojana,' 'Sabuj Sathi,' and 'Swasthya Sathi' programs.
These schemes have boosted her popularity, especially among women and the poorer sections. Furthermore, Mamata has shown sensitivity during crises and disasters. She often goes among the public to listen to and solve their problems, maintaining her image as a 'people's leader.' She has also taken a strong stand against communal politics, garnering broad support from the state's minority communities.
What do people think about Kejriwal?
According to the Mood of the Nation survey, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's popularity has decreased. In August 2023, 58% of people were satisfied with his work. By February 2024, this number had sharply fallen to 37%. However, in the next six months, his popularity started rising again, reaching 44%. Despite this, he secured the second spot among the best CMs in this survey. Numbers indicate that in August 2024, 14% of people considered him the best CM.
Why has Kejriwal’s graph fallen?
The Delhi liquor scam has significantly affected the popularity of the Aam Aadmi Party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal. Several AAP leaders faced corruption charges, tarnishing the party's image. Kejriwal, who emerged as a vocal leader against corruption, saw his credibility affected by these allegations. Moreover, the ongoing power struggle between the central and Delhi governments has also impacted Kejriwal's image. The dispute over administrative authority between the Kejriwal government and the Lieutenant Governor raised questions about the government's efficiency. Kejriwal made several promises to the people of Delhi, many of which remain unfulfilled, leading to public disappointment and a dip in his popularity. AAP’s relatively poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP won all seven seats in Delhi, has weakened the party's national standing.
Jail time, but Kejriwal’s graph rises?
The liquor scam came to light in July 2022. CBI and ED are investigating the case. Several top AAP leaders have been implicated in the investigation. In February 2023, Manish Sisodia, and in October 2023, Sanjay Singh, were arrested, followed by Kejriwal himself in March 2024. Other party leaders tried to defend the party but couldn’t prevent the significant damage. In August 2023, 53% were satisfied with Kejriwal’s work. However, the arrests of key leaders and allegations labeling Kejriwal as the “kingpin” affected his image, with satisfaction dropping to 37% in February 2024. Interestingly, after Kejriwal’s arrest in March 2024, his popularity began rising again, suggesting that a section of people views the entire matter as politically motivated.
What do people think about Shinde?
According to the MOTN survey, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's popularity is gradually increasing. By August 2024, 35% of people were satisfied with his work. Additionally, 31% were somewhat satisfied. However, 28% were dissatisfied with his work. This indicates that while the CM’s performance meets some expectations, there’s still room for improvement. As for the overall government performance, 25% of Maharashtrians are fully satisfied with the state government, 34% are somewhat satisfied, and 34% are dissatisfied. This data shows mixed opinions about the government’s performance. The survey also found that unemployment is the biggest issue for 32% of Maharashtrians, followed by development and inflation, which are significant for 15% each. Issues related to farmers are a priority for 13%.
Challenges slowing down Shinde’s graph?
Maharashtra has a grand alliance government. Eknath Shinde is the CM, Devendra Fadnavis is the BJP face, and NCP leader Ajit Pawar is also part of the government. Shinde’s leadership faced stability challenges since the government was formed post-Shiv Sena split in 2022. A significant faction of Shiv Sena still does not fully accept his leadership, hindering his strong emergence. Uddhav Thackeray continually poses a challenge. Some critics perceive Shinde’s leadership as being under BJP’s shadow, which might weaken his independent identity. A faction within Shiv Sena remains loyal to Uddhav Thackeray and does not recognize Shinde as the true Shiv Sena leader. Internal opposition and dissatisfaction within Shiv Sena weaken Shinde’s position. Many legislators and leaders are unhappy with his decisions, creating instability within the party. This struggle makes it difficult for Shinde to build a strong identity and popularity among Maharashtra's public.
The future uncertainty in Maharashtra politics also hinders Shinde's quick rise. When Shinde stepped into the government, he faced the challenge of establishing himself. First, he had the task of outperforming Fadnavis, and then Ajit Pawar’s entry added more challenges. Shinde moved forward with a clear and straightforward image, avoiding controversies and making tough decisions. However, questions about his autonomy and decision-making capacity remain. Deputy CM Fadnavis’ support has been beneficial, and the alliance formula has worked nearly successfully. This alliance is now set to contest the next elections together.
What do people think about Hemant?
According to the Mood of the Nation survey, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's popularity has decreased. Survey data shows that by August 2024, 25% of people were satisfied with his governance. Another 30% were somewhat satisfied, while 35% expressed dissatisfaction with Soren’s performance. Looking at the overall government performance, 27% were satisfied, 37% were dissatisfied, and 34% were somewhat satisfied.
Why Has Hemant Soren’s Graph Fallen?
Hemant Soren's primary support base is among the tribal and rural communities of Jharkhand. His government’s focus on tribal rights and land issues has made him popular in these communities. However, if these communities feel their expectations are not being met, this support can decline. Allegations of irregularities and corruption in mining lease allocations have raised questions about his leadership's legitimacy. Ongoing investigations by central agencies have impacted his political graph, weakening his position. Questions about the government's efficiency have arisen due to issues like unemployment, economic slowdown, and lack of investment. These challenges in handling such issues have also affected Soren’s political graph.
The coalition government led by Hemant Soren includes the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress, and RJD. This alliance frequently faces internal tensions, affecting the government's stability and Soren's leadership. Soren’s government has several welfare schemes, which help in maintaining his popularity. These include pension schemes, food security, and health services improvements. Opposition parties like the BJP exert pressure with their raised issues, posing a challenge to Soren’s government. Successful opposition campaigns against him could negatively impact his political graph.
