Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and both Deputy CMs have arrived in Delhi for a crucial meeting. Over the next 48 hours, several significant meetings are set to take place in Delhi. The NITI Aayog's first meeting is scheduled for Saturday, followed by a meeting of Chief Ministers and Deputy CMs from BJP-ruled states. It is believed that a key meeting regarding Uttar Pradesh may take place between CM Yogi and the top leadership of the BJP.
There are also speculations that CM Yogi may meet with RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat within the next 48 hours. Both Deputy CMs, Keshav Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, did not attend the Chief Minister's review meeting. Keshav Maurya was absent from the Prayagraj divisional meeting, and Brajesh Pathak was missing from the Lucknow divisional meeting.
The question arises whether they were not invited, or if they purposefully distanced themselves from the review meeting. Meanwhile, Keshav Maurya recently had a meeting with Pallavi Patel, who had previously defeated him in an election, giving rise to political speculations amid the tension. The fact that CM Yogi and both Deputy CMs have been called to Delhi indicates that something significant is brewing within the party.
Source: aajtak
The BJP claims that everything is fine within the party, but the ground reality seems different. Deputy CM Keshav Maurya’s comment about the organization being greater than the government, followed by the absence of both Deputy CMs in CM Yogi’s review meeting, hint at internal strife. Adding to this is the timing of Akhilesh Yadav’s offer in the midst of BJP’s internal discord, painting a clearer political picture. It suggests that all is not well within the BJP.
Is there a plan to topple the government amid the conflict?
On June 4, as the results of the Lok Sabha elections were announced, political speculations regarding changes in UP began to swirl. Claims surfaced that poor performance in UP would lead to the ousting of a major leader. These rumors were fueled by a statement from Keshav Prasad Maurya, bringing internal conflicts to the forefront. During this time, Akhilesh Yadav entered the fray, making a strategic move by targeting BJP's internal struggle.
Understand how Akhilesh Yadav strategically targeted two birds with one stone. By announcing the Monsoon Offer, Yadav heightened tensions within the BJP, hinting that dissatisfied BJP MLAs could form a government with the support of the Samajwadi Party. It implies that if leaders unhappy with Yogi's leadership wanted, there could be a coup in UP.
Akhilesh also targeted BJP’s internal dispute by framing it as a Delhi vs. Lucknow narrative, suggesting that plans to remove CM Yogi have already been formed in Delhi. What Yadav claimed is the same being whispered in political circles within UP. Samajwadi Party MP Dharmendra Yadav asserts that there are solid reasons behind his party leader’s offer.
Source: aajtak
Akhilesh Yadav's Monsoon Offer
Using the Monsoon Offer, Akhilesh Yadav has aimed a jab at the BJP government in UP. The question arises whether this is feasible in UP; if 100 BJP MLAs rebel, could Yogi's government fall? How realistic is Yadav’s offer on the numbers game? Let us explain.
To understand this, one needs to grasp the mathematics of the UP Assembly. Currently, there are 393 members in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly out of 403 total seats, with 10 seats vacant, awaiting by-elections. The majority mark is 197, while the NDA has 283 members, including 251 from BJP, 13 from Apna Dal, 8 from RLD, 6 from SBSP, and 5 from Nishad Party. Meanwhile, the INDIA Alliance has 107 members, of which 105 belong to the Samajwadi Party and two to Congress. There are also three independents. So, is it possible for the BJP government in UP to fall? Consider these three scenarios:
First Scenario: If 100 BJP MLAs rebel, their membership would be canceled, reducing the Assembly's strength to 293. The majority mark would become 147, and BJP, with 151 members remaining, would still hold the government.
Source: aajtak
Second Scenario: Out of 251 BJP members, for the government to fall, two-thirds would need to break away, equating to 168 members, to maintain their membership. Only then would the BJP government fall. Third Scenario: If 110 BJP MLAs resign, reducing the Assembly's strength to 283, the majority mark would be 142. The NDA would then need to maintain cohesion to stay in power.
Only if all allied parties in the NDA break away and join the INDIA Alliance could Akhilesh Yadav's proposal succeed, which is highly unlikely.
