UP Lok Sabha Election 2024
: All eyes are on the political climate of Eastern Uttar Pradesh. On one end sits Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Parliamentary seat Varanasi, and on the other, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's home district Gorakhpur. Despite these influential figures, the BJP has faced recent hardships here. Post the 2014 General and 2017 State Assembly elections, the area hasn't been as forgiving for BJP in 2019's General and 2022's State elections. BJP lost 5 of its Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and was wiped out in several districts during the 2022 elections. The question persists: why is BJP floundering even with its towering leaders, and what equations will emerge in 2024? Let's explore.
In 2019, BJP faced defeats in these 5 seats; what's in store this time?
1. Azamgarh
During the 2019 general elections, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav clinched a victory in the Azamgarh seat by a margin of over 250,000 votes, continuing the effective MY (Muslim-Yadav) formula. However, following Akhilesh's resignation, a by-election saw his brother Dharmendra Yadav face a significant defeat. BJP candidate and Bhojpuri actor-singer Dinesh Lal Yadav, aka Nirahua, secured a win with a slimmer margin. The 2024 equations lean toward the Samajwadi Party, as previous BSP candidate Guddu Jamali who aided the BJP victory now sides with the SP. The BSP's influence has waned due to strategic changes.
2. Ghosi
Last election, Ghosi was taken by BSP's Atul Rai, winning by a margin of 122,568 votes. Both SP and BSP have fielded strong candidates this round. SP presents Rajiv Rai, while BSP proposes Balakrishna Chauhan. BJP has nominated Anil Rajbhar, son of Subhaspa's president Omprakash Rajbhar, aiming to capitalize on the Rajbhar (Nonia) community votes. However, since BSP's candidate is also from the Nonia caste, the BJP's expected gain is uncertain.
3. Ghazipur
In 2019, Ghazipur was won by BSP's Afzal Ansari, giving him a lead of 119,392 votes over BJP's Manoj Sinha, a three-time MP. BJP's hopeful is Manoj Sinha's protege Paras Nath Rai. Sinha's new role as the Kashmir governor has bolstered his reputation. However, post the untimely demise of Mukhtar Ansari, SP's Afzal Ansari may garner sympathy votes. This seat's struggle is poised on a knife's edge.
4. Jaunpur
In 2019, Jaunpur saw BJP's defeat with BSP's Shyam Singh Yadav taking the win. BJP has since turned its hopes to Mumbai's Purvanchal icon Kripashankar Singh. His opponent, Babu Singh Kushwaha of SP, holds influential backward caste support. Should BSP's candidate falter, SP will likely benefit. BJP gains hope with Dhananjay Singh batting in its corner.
5. Lalganj
Lalganj, a reserved seat previously claimed by BJP in 2014, was taken by SP and BSP union in 2019. Once again, BJP is banking on its former candidate Neelam Sonkar against BSP's Dr. Indu Chaudhary and SP's seasoned Durgesh Saroj. The seat hosts a considerable Muslim populace, around 250,000 voters, and a similar Yadav count. The substantial backward caste and Dalit voters could tip the scales, leaving the battle reliant on BSP's candidate strength.
Will BJP retain these three Eastern UP seats this time?
Three seats in Eastern Uttar Pradesh barely held by BJP pose an ongoing challenge: Chandauli, Machhlishahr, and Ballia faced slim 2019 victories.
6. Machhlishahr
With the slimmest margin in all of UP, BJP won Machhlishahr by just 181 votes. The sitting MP BP Saroj faces anti-incumbency woes. SP pin their hopes on Priya Saroj, daughter of three-time MP Tufani Saroj. The contest is far from comfortable for BJP.
7. Chandauli
Last round, BJP's Dr. Mahendra Nath Pandey barely held Chandauli. This time, the race is fierce. SP's candidate Virendra Singh poses a threat as BJP risks losing the pivotal Maurayan community votes, historically its backbone.
8. Ballia
In 2019, Virendra Singh Mast claimed a narrow win for BJP in Ballia. BJP now shifts confidence to former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar's son Neeraj Shekhar. Up against him are SP's Sanatan Pandey and BSP's Lalan Singh Yadav. Shekhar appears strong, but Pandey could disrupt plans.
