The second round of peace talks held in Istanbul on Monday, following the 2022 discussions, concluded within an hour. The representatives from both nations adopted a stern approach. Russia clarified that a ceasefire would only be feasible if Ukraine withdrew from four partially controlled areas. Meanwhile, Ukraine emphasized the need for new sanctions to compel Russia towards peace.
What transpired in the peace talks?
Russian representative Medinsky announced the agreement to return the remains of 12,000 soldiers who perished in the conflict, ensuring honorable funerals according to their customs. The return will be facilitated through designated zones, necessitating a ceasefire in those regions.
A proposal for a 2-3 day limited ceasefire
Medinsky proposed a 2-3 day limited ceasefire focusing on selected frontline regions. The aim is to secure the safe handover of soldier remains to Ukraine.
Agreement on exchanging 1,000 war prisoners each
An agreement between Russia and Ukraine was reached to exchange 1,000 war prisoners each. The process will commence shortly, including severely injured and young soldiers under 25.
Source: aajtak
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Consent on forming a permanent committee
There was mutual consent to establish a permanent committee for the exchange process, ensuring swift and efficient operations in the future.
Russia presented a draft peace agreement
Russia handed over a formal peace memorandum with three key parts to Ukraine. It is said to be a concrete step towards lasting peace. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustam Umerov, leading Kyiv’s delegation, stated they would review Russia's memorandum before making any immediate comments.
Source: aajtak
Russia received a list of 400 children for return, agreed on 10
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine handed over a list of 400 children in Russia-occupied territories to the Kremlin, with consent reached to return only 10. Meanwhile, Russia asserted it relocated these children to safety from conflict zones.
Ukraine’s post-talks remarks
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov mentioned that solutions involving Russia can only be reached at the top leadership level. He proposed a direct meeting between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin by June’s end.
Source: aajtak
Ukraine’s powerful offensive against Russia
A day before the peace talks, Ukraine launched its largest attack on Russia. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) targeted four Russian airbases, impacting 41 heavy Russian bomber planes.
Drone attacks targeted four Russian airbases:
Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast (4000 km from Ukraine)
Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast
Diagilevo Airbase, Ryazan Oblast
Ivanovo Airbase, Ivanovo Oblast
November 2024: Adjustments in Russia’s nuclear policy
In November 2024, Russia altered its nuclear weapon usage policy, stating utilization not only in the event of a nuclear attack but also if any sovereignty threat arises. Although direct nuclear weapon use on Ukraine is unlikely, Russia now has a pretext for deploying its most formidable weapons.
What are Russia’s formidable weapons?
Russia possesses the arsenic missile, renowned for its speed exceeding sound 10 times. This supersonic missile has a range of 5000 kilometers.
Another formidable weapon is the Satan 2 missile, an intercontinental ballistic missile recognized among Russia’s most powerful armaments. Ukraine's President believes this aggressive stance may bring Russia back to negotiation.
This situation’s complexities make it clear Ukraine’s leadership is not keen on backing down, gaining support globally. The aid and weaponry they receive continue to bolster their resolve.
Threat of transitioning warfare methods
Globally, there is significant discourse surrounding these new warfare tactics. Ukraine executed a paradigmatic drone assault on Russia, showcasing a new age of battle. Techniques are evolving.
The world questions Russia and Ukraine’s potential for a nuclear conflict. Is this the precursor to WWIII?
A Russian “Pearl Harbor” moment?
Exploring why Ukraine’s attack is considered Russia’s “Pearl Harbor” moment, much like Japan's surprise attack on America’s Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, prompting the US into WWII.
This attack saw 20 American naval vessels, including eight battleships, decimated, and over 2400 causalities. Likewise, the Russian bombers' fleet suffered a 30% decline due to Ukrainian drone incursions.
Impact of Pearl Harbor and possible parallels
On August 6 and 9, 1945, America’s atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended WWII. This response stemmed from Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor. Thus, questions arise about whether the current drone aggression will elicit a nuclear reaction from Russia.
The ego war intensifying
The Russia-Ukraine conflict increasingly becomes an “ego war.” While peace talks occur in third countries, hostilities persist, demonstrating leaders Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky’s unwillingness to halt aggression. Is this scenario going to spiral into a nuclear confrontation?
Global nuclear flashpoints
Current global nuclear flashpoints include:
Russia holds 1,710 deployable nuclear warheads, readily available for use.
The United States holds 1,770 such weapons, while the UK and France have 120 and 280 deployable warheads, respectively.
India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel also possess nuclear arms, yet they remain “undeployed.” Crucially, Russia, America, Britain, and France have weapons available for immediate utilization.
Possible Russian nuclear usage?
All eyes are on whether Russia will employ its nuclear arsenal in this conflict. Russia’s expansive nuclear stockpile of over 1,710 weapons remains unmatched. Strategically, a few nuclear arms would suffice to dismantle Ukraine's military strongholds.
Russia’s most dangerous arsenal
Russia's formidable RDS-220, known as the “Tsar Bomba,” weighs 50 megatons, an immense 50,000 kilotons.
The American nuclear bomb “Little Boy” utilized on Hiroshima weighed 15 kilotons, rendering Tsar Bomba 3,333 times more potent.
Similarly, America’s Nagasaki bomb “Fat Man” weighed 21 kilotons; Tsar Bomba is 2,381 times heavier.
Should Russia direct this bomb at Ukraine, casualty estimates exceed 1.8 million people.
The intention of presenting these details is to inform about significant flashpoints globally susceptible to war threats.
Russia’s modified nuclear doctrine
While Russia’s counterstrike is unanticipated, it’s suggested Putin must respond robustly.
During this conflict, Putin amended Russia's nuclear doctrine in November 2024, outlining usage if sovereignty or territorial integrity faces even a slight threat. Ukraine's recent offensive could potentially trigger such a threat.
Russia’s traditional arms threat
Although Russia might refrain from employing nuclear arms, opportunities arise to use its potent conventional arsenal against Ukraine.
One such missile, the Arsenal, has a speed 10 times that of sound, covering 5000 kilometers.
Another peril is the RS-20, a ballistic intercontinental missile regarded as Russia’s most robust weaponry.
Zelensky’s strategic perspective
President Zelensky envisions that these hostilities will compel Russia to return to peace dialogues. His belief lies in Ukraine’s weaponry—furnished by America and Europe—surpassing Russian arms. Continued international support bolsters this belief, motivating the strategic approach of maintaining global safety.
Zelensky defends that Ukraine isn’t solely battling for its nation but for global peace and security.
