The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar is gearing up for elections. Bihar's government, led by Nitish Kumar, has restructured commissions and boards like the Scheduled Castes Commission and Women's Commission to accommodate various ticket aspirants. This is seen as an effort to minimize rebellion due to unallocated tickets. Meanwhile, Chirag Paswan has stirred tension in the ruling coalition by announcing his decision to contest all 243 seats, asserting his claim over 70 seats.
Who might central minister Chirag Paswan's electoral tactic be most detrimental to? It's a separate matter, but his strategy is clear. The president of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Chirag, is focused on shedding the 'vote split' image from the last Bihar elections and reclaiming his father's kingmaker status. The discussion includes those 33 seats that Chirag Paswan dreams will make him the kingmaker in Bihar elections. Which are these 33 seats?
Which Seats Will Make Chirag a Kingmaker?
Chirag Paswan and his party are aiming to hold the keys to power in Bihar through 33 strategic seats. These are the base of his bargaining power and the magical wand for securing desired positions for his party. This is because these are the seats that historically caused the worst outcome for Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) since the first assembly elections of 2005, with his party winning only 43 seats to rank third.
During the 2020 Bihar election, Chirag's party, under the banner 'Ekla Chalo', fielded candidates across seats allotted to the JDU under NDA, managing to win just one out of 137 contested assembly seats but significantly impacting 33 seats. In 28 seats, LJP candidates received more votes than the JDU's losing margin. In five seats, the LJP pushed JDU candidates to the third position. Dinara in Rohtas district to Bhagalpur are some names in this seat list.
RJD and Grand Alliance as Opponents!
Post-election results in Bihar, Nitish Kumar himself blamed Chirag Paswan's party for his party's dismal show. Some JDU leaders even cited a conspiracy by the BJP behind this, with some suggesting it led Nitish to break ties with the NDA and join the grand alliance. This time, however, the picture might change on these seats. If Chirag advances with the 'Ekla Chalo' formula, fielding candidates on these seats, RJD and the grand alliance led by it will stand opposite.
This can be understood from past election outcomes. For instance, Vijay Mandal from the RJD won the Dinara assembly seat in Rohtas district in 2020 with a margin of 8,228 votes. Chirag's party candidate Rajendra Singh secured 51,313 votes and stood second, while JDU's Jai Kumar Singh was third with 27,252 votes.
Similarly, Ajit Sharma from the Congress secured Bhagalpur seat by a narrow margin of 1,113 votes, with 65,502 votes, while BJP's Rohit Pandey stood at the second position with 64,389 votes, followed by LJP's Rajesh Verma who secured 20,523 votes.
Chirag's Seat Sharing Plan
Chirag Paswan seeks an alliance for 70 seats but aims for at least 40. It's speculated he might settle for 35 but not below 33, where friendly contests might occur.
Currently, the possible seat-sharing formula in Bihar's NDA talks of allotting 28 to 30 seats to Chirag's party. Both JDU and BJP may contest on 102-102 seats each. The remaining 39 seats could accommodate parties of Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha.
