The meeting between Bhojpuri superstar Pawan Singh and National Lok Morcha chief Upendra Kushwaha on Tuesday is seen as a masterstroke by the BJP ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections. This strategic alliance appears to consolidate support from the Kushwaha and Rajput communities in favor of the NDA in the Shahabad and Magadh regions.
For months, the BJP has been diligently working on reviving its strategy in the Shahabad-Magadh region to counter past electoral weaknesses under what is dubbed 'Operation Shahabad.'
Historically, the Shahabad region—encompassing Bhojpur, Buxar, Rohtas, and Kaimur—has been a stronghold for the NDA. However, it faltered in the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections and again during the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.
2020 Bihar Assembly Elections
In the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the elections occurred in three phases, kicking off in the Shahabad region. Known as an NDA bastion, the region's performance plummeted with the NDA winning minimal seats in the 2020 elections.
1. In the Ara district with seven assembly seats, the NDA secured only two in 2020, both won by the BJP.
2. In Buxar, which also has four assembly seats, the NDA failed to make its mark in 2020.
3. Similarly, in Kaimur's four assembly seats, the NDA did not win any, though later on, Bahujan Samaj Party's Jama Khan from Chainpur joined the Janata Dal United.
4. Rohtas, with its seven assembly seats, also saw no wins for the NDA.
NDA's Limited Wins: 2 out of 22 Seats
Contextualizing the situation, the NDA managed to secure only 2 out of 22 assembly seats in the Shahabad region, both attributed to the BJP, while Janata Dal United and allied parties failed to make inroads.
When factoring in seats from the Magadh region, the NDA's 2020 performance was even weaker.
1. In Arwal's two seats, the NDA's tally remained zero in 2020.
2. Jehanabad's three assembly seats also saw the NDA failing to open its account.
3. In Aurangabad's six seats, the NDA again reported no victories.
4. Nawada's four seats also yielded no wins for the NDA.
2024 Lok Sabha Election Dynamics
The underwhelming performance seen in the 2020 Shahabad Bihar Assembly Elections extended into the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, predominantly due to fragmentation in Rajput and Kushwaha voter bases. CPI (ML) candidate Sudama Prasad clinched the Ara Lok Sabha seat, unseating then-MP and Union Minister RK Singh.
RJD's candidate Sudhakar Singh emerged victorious in Buxar, toppling BJP's Mithilesh Tiwari. Congress candidate Manoj Kumar Ram won the Sasaram Lok Sabha seat, defeating BJP's Shivesh Ram.
Kushwaha's seat at Karakat went to CPI (ML) candidate Rajaram Singh Kushwaha, largely due to Pawan Singh's independent campaign, resulting in NDA candidate Upendra Kushwaha's loss.
When considering two additional seats from the Magadh region, Jehanabad and Aurangabad, the NDA's performance was notably poor in 2024, seeing their seat count drop from 39 out of 40 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 30.
RJD's candidate Surendra Prasad Yadav won Jehanabad, while Abhay Kushwaha triumphed in Aurangabad.
In 2024, the RJD strategically fielded seven Kushwaha candidates, differentiating themselves and drawing Kushwaha votes, previously core NDA supporters. This shift was beneficial for the Mahagathbandhan.
Lalu's MYK Equation in 2024
Considering caste census data, the Kushwaha community makes up over 6% of Bihar's population. Lalu Prasad strategically integrated the Kushwahas into his traditional Muslim (18%) and Yadav (14%) base, targeting nearly 38% of the vote.
Although only two Kushwaha candidates from the Mahagathbandhan won seats, the split in Kushwaha votes contributed significantly to NDA's defeats in many constituencies.
'Operation Shahabad' Launch
Following their complete wipeout in the 2024 Shahabad Lok Sabha elections, the BJP embarked on 'Operation Shahabad.' By working strategically to win back the Kushwaha voter base, the BJP sent Upendra Kushwaha to the Rajya Sabha after losing his Lok Sabha election. Concurrently, the Janata Dal United appointed the influential Jagdishpur leader Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha as MLC and the BJP strengthened its core Shahabad base by appointing 105 local leaders to the state committee.
Key leaders from the Shahabad region were elevated to significant state-level positions, including Shivesh Ram, a Dalit leader and Lok Sabha candidate from Sasaram, who was appointed party general secretary, and Rajendra Singh, who after previously contesting the 2020 assembly elections independently with Chirag Paswan's Lok Jan Shakti Party, was reinstated and appointed state vice-president.
Rituraj Sinha's Charge over Magadh-Shahabad
Just before the Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP finalized their electoral strategy, dividing the state into five regions and assigning leaders specific responsibilities. Mahendra Singh was given charge of Mithila and Tirhut, Arvind Menon of Champaran and Saran, Pradeep Varma of Bhagalpur, Kosi, and Purnia, Asim Goyal of Patna, Munger, Begusarai, and Nalanda, while Rituraj Sinha took charge of Magadh and Shahabad.
Entrusting Rituraj Sinha with Magadh and Shahabad was a significant challenge, but within five days, he orchestrated a tactical strike by uniting Pawan Singh and Upendra Kushwaha.
Pawan Singh's independent bid in 2024 at Karakat led to Upendra Kushwaha placing third and suffering a substantial setback. Singh's bid allegedly contributed to BJP candidate RK Singh's defeat in Ara. Recently, Pawan Singh met with RK Singh, and aligning with Upendra Kushwaha suggests a reunification of Kushwaha and Rajput votes, potentially bolstering NDA's prospects in the Magadh and Shahabad regions.
